Charlton 1–2 Bristol City: Result & Stats

Charlton

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Bristol City

L. Dykes 30'

N. Eile 55'

S. Twine 11'

4/3/2026

Championship · Round 40The Valley

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 19+ matches

Charlton37%

×Draw27%

Bristol City35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CharltonExpected goals in this matchBristol City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.24

1.19

Charlton

1.24

Bristol City

1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 58 away

1.12

creates per match

1.05

1.32

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Charlton

1.12

Bristol City

1.05

allows per match

Charlton

1.32

Bristol City

1.35

-0.12scores less than expected

finishing

-0.08on par

finishing

Charlton-0.12scores less

Bristol City-0.08on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Charlton ↓

Bristol City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Charlton or draw

65%

Charlton or Bristol City

73%

Draw or Bristol City

63%

Winning margin

Charlton wins by 2+

16%

Bristol City wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Charlton 1+ goals

71%

Charlton 2+ goals

35%

Charlton 3+ goals

13%

Bristol City 1+ goals

70%

Bristol City 2+ goals

33%

Bristol City 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Charlton (draw refunded)

52%

Bristol City (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Charlton at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.32 · 19 matches

Bristol City away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.35 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Charlton attack 1.12 + Bristol City defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.24

Bristol City attack 1.05 + Charlton defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Charlton scores more

37%

level

27%

Bristol City scores more

35%

Charlton at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Charlton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

S. Twine

Bristol City · M

8.7

Match Events

11'

S. Twine↳ M. Bird

30'

Scott Twine

30'

L. Dykes↳ C. Kelman

46'

S. Morsy← R. McCrorie

55'

N. Eile

60'

Kayne Ramsay

64'

T. Campbell← L. Chambers

65'

I. Fullah← C. Kelman

70'

Harry Clarke

79'

M. Godden← H. Clarke

79'

J. Rankin-Costello← C. Coventry

83'

G. Earthy← M. Bird

86'

J. Fevrier← G. Docherty

86'

S. Armstrong← E. Riis

90+4'

Mark Sykes

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CharltonBristol

Overview

47%Possession53%

13Total Shots17

1.56Expected Goals (xG)2.59

7Corners3

19Fouls8

Shots

13Total Shots17

4On Target8

7Off Target4

2Blocked5

9Inside Box10

4Outside Box7

Passing

47%Possession53%

371Total Passes430

281Accurate Passes340

76%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

6Saves3

0.15Goals Prevented0.15

Discipline

19Fouls8

2Yellow Cards2

2Offsides0

Match Recap: Charlton vs Bristol City

Bristol City beat Charlton 2-1 in Championship on April 3, 2026.

Goals: S. Twine (11'), L. Dykes (30'), N. Eile (55').

Bristol City controlled possession (53%) and registered 17 shots to 13.

The match was played at The Valley in London.

Charlton vs Bristol City — Championship 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Charlton vs Bristol City