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Charlton vs Blackburn — Championship 2018

Charlton
Charlton
Preview
15:00
Blackburn
Blackburn
3/13/2027ChampionshipChampionship · Round 37The Valley
Big match
38%
Charlton
model favours
38%28%34%

Charlton have scored in 9 games running

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
57%
under 2.5 goals
49%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 19+ matches

Charlton38%
×Draw28%
Blackburn34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Charlton
1.25
Blackburn
1.16

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 54 away

creates per match

Charlton
1.12
Blackburn
0.99

allows per match

Charlton
1.32
Blackburn
1.39

finishing

Charlton-0.12scores less
Blackburn+0.01on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Charlton ↓

Blackburn →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Charlton or draw
66%
Charlton or Blackburn
72%
Draw or Blackburn
62%

Winning margin

Charlton wins by 2+
17%
Blackburn wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Charlton 1+ goals
71%
Charlton 2+ goals
36%
Charlton 3+ goals
13%
Blackburn 1+ goals
69%
Blackburn 2+ goals
32%
Blackburn 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Charlton (draw refunded)
53%
Blackburn (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Charlton at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.32 · 19 matches

Blackburn away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.39 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Charlton attack 1.12 + Blackburn defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.25

Blackburn attack 0.99 + Charlton defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Charlton scores more
38%
level
28%
Blackburn scores more
34%

Charlton at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Charlton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Charlton score first in only 30% of matches
  • 70% of Charlton’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
  • Blackburn have won 7 of the last 10 meetings

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Charlton
Direct / counter-attacking
Blackburn
Balanced
43%Possession50%
70%Pass accuracy75%
10.5Shots11.1
1.00xGBiggest gap1.16
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
CharltonBlackburn

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

1
Charlton
2
Draws
7
Blackburn
Avg goals: 2.9BTTS: 50%
2–23–00–20–21–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Charlton
WDWLW
Blackburn
LWWDL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Charlton vs Blackburn — Match Preview

Charlton face Blackburn on March 13, 2027 in this Championship fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Charlton host Blackburn at The Valley.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.