Blackburn 2–2 Charlton: Result & Stats

Blackburn

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Charlton

M. Baradji 77', 37'

C. Kelman 34' (pen), 28'

1/4/2026

Championship · Round 26Ewood Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

Blackburn47%

×Draw27%

Charlton26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BlackburnExpected goals in this matchCharlton

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

0.98

Blackburn

1.43

Charlton

0.98

Blackburn creates 46% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 21 away

1.31

creates per match

0.89

1.06

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Blackburn

1.31

Charlton

0.89

allows per match

Blackburn

1.06

Charlton

1.55

-0.27scores less than expected

finishing

-0.03on par

finishing

Blackburn-0.27scores less

Charlton-0.03on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blackburn ↓

Charlton →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Blackburn or draw

74%

Blackburn or Charlton

73%

Draw or Charlton

53%

Winning margin

Blackburn wins by 2+

23%

Charlton wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Blackburn 1+ goals

76%

Blackburn 2+ goals

42%

Blackburn 3+ goals

17%

Charlton 1+ goals

62%

Charlton 2+ goals

26%

Charlton 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Blackburn (draw refunded)

65%

Charlton (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blackburn at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.06 · 57 matches

Charlton away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.55 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blackburn attack 1.31 + Charlton defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.43

Charlton attack 0.89 + Blackburn defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Blackburn scores more

47%

level

27%

Charlton scores more

26%

Blackburn at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Blackburn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

24

M. Baradji

Blackburn · F

8.5

Match Events

28'

C. Kelman

34'

C. KelmanPenalty

37'

M. Baradji↳ T. Cantwell

42'

M. Gillesphey← R. Burke

46'

D. De Neve← H. Pickering

46'

C. O'Riordan← G. Pratt

48'

Connor O'Riordan

50'

Macaulay Gillesphey

60'

G. Docherty← J. Rankin-Costello

60'

S. Carey← L. Berry

61'

Conor Coventry

76'

A. Henriksson← T. Gardner-Hickman

77'

M. Baradji↳ L. Miller

78'

H. Knibbs← C. Coventry

79'

T. Olaofe← M. Leaburn

82'

K. Montgomery← M. Baradji

87'

Lloyd Jones

90+5'

James Bree

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BlackburnCharlton

Overview

59%Possession41%

17Total Shots11

0.85Expected Goals (xG)1.47

2Corners5

9Fouls18

Shots

17Total Shots11

5On Target4

4Off Target4

8Blocked3

8Inside Box6

9Outside Box5

Passing

59%Possession41%

400Total Passes283

289Accurate Passes168

72%Pass Accuracy59%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

-0.50Goals Prevented-0.50

Discipline

9Fouls18

1Yellow Cards4

1Offsides0

Match Recap: Blackburn vs Charlton

Blackburn and Charlton drew 2-2 in Championship on January 4, 2026.

Goals: C. Kelman (28', 34' pen), M. Baradji (37', 77').

Blackburn controlled possession (59%) and registered 17 shots to 11.

The match was played at Ewood Park in Blackburn.

Blackburn vs Charlton — Championship 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Blackburn vs Charlton