Charlton 1–3 Blackburn: Result & Stats

Charlton

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Blackburn

4/26/2014

Championship · Round 45The Valley

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 20+ matches

Charlton39%

×Draw28%

Blackburn34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CharltonExpected goals in this matchBlackburn

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.24

1.14

Charlton

1.24

Blackburn

1.14

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 20 home / 59 away

1.10

creates per match

1.01

1.27

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Charlton

1.10

Blackburn

1.01

allows per match

Charlton

1.27

Blackburn

1.38

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

+0.06on par

finishing

Charlton-0.10scores less

Blackburn+0.06on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Charlton ↓

Blackburn →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Charlton or draw

66%

Charlton or Blackburn

72%

Draw or Blackburn

61%

Winning margin

Charlton wins by 2+

17%

Blackburn wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Charlton 1+ goals

71%

Charlton 2+ goals

35%

Charlton 3+ goals

13%

Blackburn 1+ goals

68%

Blackburn 2+ goals

32%

Blackburn 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Charlton (draw refunded)

53%

Blackburn (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Charlton at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.27 · 20 matches

Blackburn away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.38 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Charlton attack 1.10 + Blackburn defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.24

Blackburn attack 1.01 + Charlton defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Charlton scores more

39%

level

28%

Blackburn scores more

34%

Charlton at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Charlton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff