Charlton Athletic W 3–2 Watford W: Result & Stats

Charlton Athletic W

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Watford W

12/14/2025

FA Women's Cup · 3rd RoundThe Valley

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Charlton Athletic W52%

×Draw19%

Watford W29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Charlton Athletic WExpected goals in this matchWatford W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.50

1.84

Charlton Athletic W

2.50

Watford W

1.84

Charlton Athletic W creates 36% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 8 away

2.86

creates per match

2.25

1.43

allows per match

2.13

creates per match

Charlton Athletic W

2.86

Watford W

2.25

allows per match

Charlton Athletic W

1.43

Watford W

2.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Charlton Athletic W+0.00on par

Watford W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over80
Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes77
No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Charlton Athletic W ↓

Watford W →

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–41%

1–03%

1–16%

1–26%

1–33%

1–42%

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3–03%

3–16%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4–02%

4–14%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

80%20%3.5

62%38%4.5

43%57%

Double chance

Charlton Athletic W or draw

71%

Charlton Athletic W or Watford W

81%

Draw or Watford W

48%

Winning margin

Charlton Athletic W wins by 2+

32%

Watford W wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Charlton Athletic W 1+ goals

92%

Charlton Athletic W 2+ goals

71%

Charlton Athletic W 3+ goals

45%

Watford W 1+ goals

84%

Watford W 2+ goals

55%

Watford W 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Charlton Athletic W (draw refunded)

65%

Watford W (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

71%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Charlton Athletic W at home — creates 2.86, concedes 1.43 · 7 matches

Watford W away — creates 2.25, concedes 2.13 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Charlton Athletic W attack 2.86 + Watford W defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 2.50

Watford W attack 2.25 + Charlton Athletic W defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 52%?"

Charlton Athletic W scores more

52%

level

19%

Watford W scores more

29%

Charlton Athletic W at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Charlton Athletic W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff