Charlton Athletic W 3–1 Milton Keynes Dons W

Charlton Athletic W

3 – 1

Milton Keynes Dons W

1/8/2023

FA Women's Cup · 3rd RoundThe Oakwood

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Charlton Athletic W73%

×Draw14%

Milton Keynes Dons W13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Charlton Athletic WExpected goals in this matchMilton Keynes Dons W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.33

1.42

Charlton Athletic W

3.33

Milton Keynes Dons W

1.42

Charlton Athletic W creates 135% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 5 away

2.86

creates per match

1.40

1.43

allows per match

3.80

creates per match

Charlton Athletic W

2.86

Milton Keynes Dons W

1.40

allows per match

Charlton Athletic W

1.43

Milton Keynes Dons W

3.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Charlton Athletic W+0.00on par

Milton Keynes Dons W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over84
Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes73
No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Charlton Athletic W ↓

Milton Keynes Dons W →

0–01%

0–11%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1–03%

1–14%

1–23%

1–31%

1–41%

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–06%

3–18%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4–05%

4–17%

4–25%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (8%) · grid covers 79% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

95%5%2.5

84%16%3.5

68%32%4.5

49%51%

Double chance

Charlton Athletic W or draw

87%

Charlton Athletic W or Milton Keynes Dons W

86%

Draw or Milton Keynes Dons W

27%

Winning margin

Charlton Athletic W wins by 2+

54%

Milton Keynes Dons W wins by 2+

Team goals

Charlton Athletic W 1+ goals

96%

Charlton Athletic W 2+ goals

84%

Charlton Athletic W 3+ goals

63%

Milton Keynes Dons W 1+ goals

76%

Milton Keynes Dons W 2+ goals

41%

Milton Keynes Dons W 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Charlton Athletic W (draw refunded)

85%

Milton Keynes Dons W (draw refunded)

15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

69%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Charlton Athletic W at home — creates 2.86, concedes 1.43 · 7 matches

Milton Keynes Dons W away — creates 1.40, concedes 3.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Charlton Athletic W attack 2.86 + Milton Keynes Dons W defence 3.80 → ÷2 → 3.33

Milton Keynes Dons W attack 1.40 + Charlton Athletic W defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 73%?"

Charlton Athletic W scores more

73%

level

14%

Milton Keynes Dons W scores more

13%

Charlton Athletic W at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Charlton Athletic W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff