Charlotte 2–0 Portland Timbers: Result & Stats

Charlotte

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Portland Timbers

E. Copetti 90+1'

N. Petković 54'

5/4/2024

Major League Soccer · Round 16Bank of America Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 34+ matches

Charlotte49%

×Draw23%

Portland Timbers28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CharlotteExpected goals in this matchPortland Timbers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

1.30

Charlotte

1.79

Portland Timbers

1.30

Charlotte creates 38% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 36 away

1.74

creates per match

1.20

1.41

allows per match

1.83

creates per match

Charlotte

1.74

Portland Timbers

1.20

allows per match

Charlotte

1.41

Portland Timbers

1.83

+0.14scores more than expected

finishing

+0.08on par

finishing

Charlotte+0.14scores more

Portland Timbers+0.08on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Charlotte ↓

Portland Timbers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Charlotte or draw

72%

Charlotte or Portland Timbers

77%

Draw or Portland Timbers

51%

Winning margin

Charlotte wins by 2+

27%

Portland Timbers wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Charlotte 1+ goals

83%

Charlotte 2+ goals

53%

Charlotte 3+ goals

26%

Portland Timbers 1+ goals

73%

Portland Timbers 2+ goals

37%

Portland Timbers 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Charlotte (draw refunded)

64%

Portland Timbers (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Charlotte at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.41 · 34 matches

Portland Timbers away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.83 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Charlotte attack 1.74 + Portland Timbers defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.79

Portland Timbers attack 1.20 + Charlotte defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Charlotte scores more

49%

level

23%

Portland Timbers scores more

28%

Charlotte at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Charlotte will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23

N. Petković

Charlotte · M

7.7

Match Events

20'

Cristhian Paredes

36'

Eryk Williamson

42'

D. Župarić← M. Araujo

45+5'

Brecht Dejaegere

45+3'

Iuri Tavares

45+2'

Iuri TavaresPenalty cancelled

54'

N. Petković↳ N. Byrne

55'

Antony← D. Ayala

55'

D. Asprilla← F. Mora

71'

B. Bronico← N. Petković

77'

E. Copetti← P. Agyemang

78'

Nathan Fogaça← C. Bravo

82'

Brandt Bronico

82'

Andrew Privett

86'

Júnior Urso← B. Dejaegere

86'

T. Smalls← Iuri Tavares

90+5'

Djibril Diani

90+1'

E. Copetti

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CharlottePortland

Overview

46%Possession54%

14Total Shots6

1.37Expected Goals (xG)0.35

3Corners3

12Fouls13

Shots

14Total Shots6

3On Target3

6Off Target3

5Blocked0

10Inside Box4

4Outside Box2

Passing

46%Possession54%

373Total Passes442

287Accurate Passes361

77%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

12Fouls13

5Yellow Cards2

0Offsides3