Charlotte 1–1 FC Cincinnati: Result & Stats

Charlotte

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

FC Cincinnati

D. Diani 60' (pen)

A. Boupendza 90+2'

3/30/2024

Major League Soccer · Round 9Bank of America Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 35+ matches

Charlotte47%

×Draw24%

FC Cincinnati29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CharlotteExpected goals in this matchFC Cincinnati

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.29

Charlotte

1.71

FC Cincinnati

1.29

Charlotte creates 33% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 35 away

1.74

creates per match

1.24

1.35

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Charlotte

1.74

FC Cincinnati

1.24

allows per match

Charlotte

1.35

FC Cincinnati

1.67

+0.12scores more than expected

finishing

+0.36scores more than expected

finishing

Charlotte+0.12scores more

FC Cincinnati+0.36scores more

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Charlotte ↓

FC Cincinnati →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Charlotte or draw

71%

Charlotte or FC Cincinnati

76%

Draw or FC Cincinnati

53%

Winning margin

Charlotte wins by 2+

25%

FC Cincinnati wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Charlotte 1+ goals

82%

Charlotte 2+ goals

51%

Charlotte 3+ goals

24%

FC Cincinnati 1+ goals

72%

FC Cincinnati 2+ goals

37%

FC Cincinnati 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Charlotte (draw refunded)

62%

FC Cincinnati (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Charlotte at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.35 · 36 matches

FC Cincinnati away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.67 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Charlotte attack 1.74 + FC Cincinnati defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.71

FC Cincinnati attack 1.24 + Charlotte defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Charlotte scores more

47%

level

24%

FC Cincinnati scores more

29%

Charlotte at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Charlotte will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

91

D. Yedlin

FC Cincinnati · M

7.9

Match Events

46'

I. Murphy← N. Hagglund

60'

D. DianiPenalty

61'

L. Abada← N. Petković

61'

O. Nwobodo← C. Baird

64'

Ian Murphy

72'

Brecht Dejaegere

74'

Júnior Urso← B. Dejaegere

74'

E. Copetti← P. Agyemang

82'

B. Halsey← L. Orellano

82'

Sergio Santos← Y. Kubo

88'

Aaron-Salem Boupendza

89'

G. Valenzuela← P. Bucha

90'

Kerwin Calderón Vargas

90+7'

Obinna Nwobodo

90+6'

B. Bronico← K. Vargas

90+2'

A. Boupendza↳ D. Yedlin

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CharlotteFC

Overview

38%Possession62%

16Total Shots17

2.35Expected Goals (xG)1.65

3Corners5

6Fouls14

Shots

16Total Shots17

3On Target5

9Off Target8

4Blocked4

13Inside Box9

3Outside Box8

Passing

38%Possession62%

337Total Passes566

264Accurate Passes485

78%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

Discipline

6Fouls14

2Yellow Cards3

1Offsides3