Charlotte Independence 1–4 Union Omaha

Charlotte Independence

FT

1 – 4

HT: 1 – 0

Union Omaha

R. Nuhu 36' (OG)

L. Kunga 90+4'

M. Rodríguez 76', 62'

Pedro Dolabella 54'

5/17/2024

USL League One · Round 5American Legion Memorial Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Charlotte Independence44%

×Draw25%

Union Omaha32%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Charlotte IndependenceExpected goals in this matchUnion Omaha

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.31

Charlotte Independence

1.58

Union Omaha

1.31

Charlotte Independence creates 21% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 24 away

1.83

creates per match

1.17

1.46

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Charlotte Independence

1.83

Union Omaha

1.17

allows per match

Charlotte Independence

1.46

Union Omaha

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Charlotte Independence+0.00on par

Union Omaha+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Charlotte Independence ↓

Union Omaha →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Charlotte Independence or draw

68%

Charlotte Independence or Union Omaha

75%

Draw or Union Omaha

56%

Winning margin

Charlotte Independence wins by 2+

22%

Union Omaha wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Charlotte Independence 1+ goals

79%

Charlotte Independence 2+ goals

47%

Charlotte Independence 3+ goals

21%

Union Omaha 1+ goals

73%

Union Omaha 2+ goals

38%

Union Omaha 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Charlotte Independence (draw refunded)

58%

Union Omaha (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Charlotte Independence at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.46 · 24 matches

Union Omaha away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.33 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Charlotte Independence attack 1.83 + Union Omaha defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.58

Union Omaha attack 1.17 + Charlotte Independence defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Charlotte Independence scores more

44%

level

25%

Union Omaha scores more

32%

Charlotte Independence at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Charlotte Independence will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

D. Acoff

36'

R. NuhuOwn goal

39'

R. Djedje

40'

L. Mastrantonio

43'

J. Gallardo

46'

L. Kunga← L. Mastrantonio

54'

Pedro Dolabella↳ J. Gómez

62'

M. Rodríguez↳ L. Kunga

64'

K. Belmar← L. Álvarez

64'

G. Obertan← J. Johnson

64'

N. Pilato← R. Djédjé

73'

N. Pilato

76'

M. Rodríguez↳ Pedro Dolabella

77'

R. Jiba← M. Rodríguez

77'

Z. Lewis← J. Gallardo

87'

S. Dutey← A. Sorenson

87'

90+6'

90+2'

90+4'

Charlotte

Union

24

🥅

2

5

3

4

▼

Mastranto

8

Nortey

7

▼

Gallardo

9

⚽A

Dolabella

26

Acoff

21

A

▼

Gómez

99

⚽2

▼

Rodríguez

1

Pack

8

▼

Johnson

3

Roberts

4

Spielman

13

▼

Sorenson

17

Dimick

7

▼

Djédjé

11

Mbuyu

14

▼

Álvarez

27

▼

Ndiaye

29

Obregón

Manager: M. Jeffries

64'▲K. Belmar←▼L. Álvarez

64'▲G. Obertan←▼J. Johnson

64'▲N. Pilato←▼R. Djédjé

87'▲S. Dutey←▼A. Sorenson

87'▲M. Ibarra←▼B. Ndiaye

Charlotte Independence substitutes

9Belmar56Obertan15Pilato5Dutey10Ibarra49Behrmann19Gray28Levy24Akyeampong

Manager: D. Casciato

46'▲L. Kunga←▼L. Mastrantonio

77'▲R. Jiba←▼M. Rodríguez

77'▲Z. Lewis←▼J. Gallardo

90+2'▲B. Knapp←▼J. Gómez

Union Omaha substitutes

70Kunga27Jiba11Lewis15Knapp22Perkins18Bronnik36Lapsley