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Charlotte Independence vs Sporting KC II — USL Championship 2018

Charlotte Independence
Charlotte Independence
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Sporting KC II
Sporting KC II
9/21/2019USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 53Matthews Sportsplex (Matthews, North Carolina)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Charlotte Independence53%
×Draw22%
Sporting KC II25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Charlotte Independence
1.94
Sporting KC II
1.25

Charlotte Independence creates 55% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 66 away

creates per match

Charlotte Independence
1.70
Sporting KC II
1.18

allows per match

Charlotte Independence
1.32
Sporting KC II
2.18

finishing

Charlotte Independence+0.00on par
Sporting KC II+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Charlotte Independence ↓

Sporting KC II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Charlotte Independence or draw
75%
Charlotte Independence or Sporting KC II
78%
Draw or Sporting KC II
47%

Winning margin

Charlotte Independence wins by 2+
31%
Sporting KC II wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Charlotte Independence 1+ goals
86%
Charlotte Independence 2+ goals
58%
Charlotte Independence 3+ goals
30%
Sporting KC II 1+ goals
71%
Sporting KC II 2+ goals
36%
Sporting KC II 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Charlotte Independence (draw refunded)
68%
Sporting KC II (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Charlotte Independence at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.32 · 60 matches

Sporting KC II away — creates 1.18, concedes 2.18 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Charlotte Independence attack 1.70 + Sporting KC II defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.94

Sporting KC II attack 1.18 + Charlotte Independence defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Charlotte Independence scores more
53%
level
22%
Sporting KC II scores more
25%

Charlotte Independence at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Charlotte Independence will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Charlotte Independence vs Sporting KC II

Sporting KC II beat Charlotte Independence 3-0 in USL Championship on September 21, 2019.

The match was played at Matthews Sportsplex (Matthews, North Carolina).