Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Charlotte Independence vs Saint Louis — USL Championship 2018

Charlotte Independence
Charlotte Independence
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Saint Louis
Saint Louis
7/13/2019USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 33Matthews Sportsplex (Matthews, North Carolina)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Charlotte Independence48%
×Draw25%
Saint Louis27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Charlotte Independence
1.60
Saint Louis
1.13

Charlotte Independence creates 42% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 45 away

creates per match

Charlotte Independence
1.70
Saint Louis
0.93

allows per match

Charlotte Independence
1.32
Saint Louis
1.51

finishing

Charlotte Independence+0.00on par
Saint Louis+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Charlotte Independence ↓

Saint Louis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Charlotte Independence or draw
73%
Charlotte Independence or Saint Louis
75%
Draw or Saint Louis
52%

Winning margin

Charlotte Independence wins by 2+
25%
Saint Louis wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Charlotte Independence 1+ goals
80%
Charlotte Independence 2+ goals
47%
Charlotte Independence 3+ goals
22%
Saint Louis 1+ goals
68%
Saint Louis 2+ goals
31%
Saint Louis 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Charlotte Independence (draw refunded)
64%
Saint Louis (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Charlotte Independence at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.32 · 60 matches

Saint Louis away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.51 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Charlotte Independence attack 1.70 + Saint Louis defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.60

Saint Louis attack 0.93 + Charlotte Independence defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Charlotte Independence scores more
48%
level
25%
Saint Louis scores more
27%

Charlotte Independence at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Charlotte Independence will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL Championship: Charlotte Independence 2–1 Saint Louis

Charlotte Independence beat Saint Louis 2-1 in USL Championship on July 13, 2019.

The match was played at Matthews Sportsplex (Matthews, North Carolina).