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Charlotte Independence vs Philadelphia Union II — USL Championship 2018

Charlotte Independence
Charlotte Independence
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Philadelphia Union II
Philadelphia Union II
8/8/2018USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 37Matthews Sportsplex (Matthews, North Carolina)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Charlotte Independence52%
×Draw22%
Philadelphia Union II26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Charlotte Independence
1.94
Philadelphia Union II
1.31

Charlotte Independence creates 48% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 43 away

creates per match

Charlotte Independence
1.70
Philadelphia Union II
1.30

allows per match

Charlotte Independence
1.32
Philadelphia Union II
2.19

finishing

Charlotte Independence+0.00on par
Philadelphia Union II+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Charlotte Independence ↓

Philadelphia Union II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Charlotte Independence or draw
74%
Charlotte Independence or Philadelphia Union II
78%
Draw or Philadelphia Union II
48%

Winning margin

Charlotte Independence wins by 2+
30%
Philadelphia Union II wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Charlotte Independence 1+ goals
86%
Charlotte Independence 2+ goals
58%
Charlotte Independence 3+ goals
30%
Philadelphia Union II 1+ goals
73%
Philadelphia Union II 2+ goals
38%
Philadelphia Union II 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Charlotte Independence (draw refunded)
67%
Philadelphia Union II (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Charlotte Independence at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.32 · 60 matches

Philadelphia Union II away — creates 1.30, concedes 2.19 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Charlotte Independence attack 1.70 + Philadelphia Union II defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 1.94

Philadelphia Union II attack 1.30 + Charlotte Independence defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Charlotte Independence scores more
52%
level
22%
Philadelphia Union II scores more
26%

Charlotte Independence at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Charlotte Independence will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Charlotte Independence vs Philadelphia Union II

Philadelphia Union II beat Charlotte Independence 3-0 in USL Championship on August 8, 2018.

The match was played at Matthews Sportsplex (Matthews, North Carolina).