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Charlotte Independence vs Ottawa Fury — USL Championship 2018

Charlotte Independence
Charlotte Independence
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Ottawa Fury
Ottawa Fury
3/17/2018USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 2Matthews Sportsplex (Matthews, North Carolina)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Charlotte Independence48%
×Draw24%
Ottawa Fury28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Charlotte Independence
1.67
Ottawa Fury
1.22

Charlotte Independence creates 37% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 34 away

creates per match

Charlotte Independence
1.70
Ottawa Fury
1.12

allows per match

Charlotte Independence
1.32
Ottawa Fury
1.65

finishing

Charlotte Independence+0.00on par
Ottawa Fury+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Charlotte Independence ↓

Ottawa Fury →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Charlotte Independence or draw
72%
Charlotte Independence or Ottawa Fury
76%
Draw or Ottawa Fury
52%

Winning margin

Charlotte Independence wins by 2+
25%
Ottawa Fury wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Charlotte Independence 1+ goals
81%
Charlotte Independence 2+ goals
50%
Charlotte Independence 3+ goals
23%
Ottawa Fury 1+ goals
70%
Ottawa Fury 2+ goals
34%
Ottawa Fury 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Charlotte Independence (draw refunded)
63%
Ottawa Fury (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Charlotte Independence at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.32 · 60 matches

Ottawa Fury away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.65 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Charlotte Independence attack 1.70 + Ottawa Fury defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.67

Ottawa Fury attack 1.12 + Charlotte Independence defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Charlotte Independence scores more
48%
level
24%
Ottawa Fury scores more
28%

Charlotte Independence at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Charlotte Independence will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL Championship: Charlotte Independence 4–1 Ottawa Fury

Charlotte Independence beat Ottawa Fury 4-1 in USL Championship on March 17, 2018.

The match was played at Matthews Sportsplex (Matthews, North Carolina).