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Charlotte Independence vs Indy Eleven — USL Championship 2026

Charlotte Independence
Charlotte Independence
FT
2 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Indy Eleven
Indy Eleven
3/15/2019USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 3Matthews Sportsplex (Matthews, North Carolina)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Charlotte Independence47%
×Draw25%
Indy Eleven29%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Charlotte Independence
1.62
Indy Eleven
1.21

Charlotte Independence creates 34% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 127 away

creates per match

Charlotte Independence
1.68
Indy Eleven
1.10

allows per match

Charlotte Independence
1.32
Indy Eleven
1.56

finishing

Charlotte Independence+0.00on par
Indy Eleven+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Charlotte Independence ↓

Indy Eleven →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Charlotte Independence or draw
71%
Charlotte Independence or Indy Eleven
75%
Draw or Indy Eleven
53%

Winning margin

Charlotte Independence wins by 2+
24%
Indy Eleven wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Charlotte Independence 1+ goals
80%
Charlotte Independence 2+ goals
48%
Charlotte Independence 3+ goals
22%
Indy Eleven 1+ goals
70%
Indy Eleven 2+ goals
34%
Indy Eleven 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Charlotte Independence (draw refunded)
62%
Indy Eleven (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Charlotte Independence at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.32 · 57 matches

Indy Eleven away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.56 · 127 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Charlotte Independence attack 1.68 + Indy Eleven defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.62

Indy Eleven attack 1.10 + Charlotte Independence defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Charlotte Independence scores more
47%
level
25%
Indy Eleven scores more
29%

Charlotte Independence at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Charlotte Independence will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Charlotte Independence vs Indy Eleven

Indy Eleven beat Charlotte Independence 3-2 in USL Championship on March 15, 2019.

The match was played at Matthews Sportsplex (Matthews, North Carolina).