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Emirates Club vs Al Ain — League #301 2026

Emirates Club
Emirates Club
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Al Ain
Al Ain
B. Ibini-Isei 18'
Caio 78'
M. Berg 21'
Hussein El Shahat 2'
8/31/2018League #301League #301 · Round 1Emirates Club Stadium (Rās al-Khaymah (Ras al-Khaimah))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Emirates Club14%
×Draw17%
Al Ain69%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Emirates Club
1.03
Al Ain
2.51

Al Ain creates 144% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 20 away

creates per match

Emirates Club
1.22
Al Ain
2.75

allows per match

Emirates Club
2.28
Al Ain
0.85

finishing

Emirates Club+0.00on par
Al Ain+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Emirates Club ↓

Al Ain →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–29%
0–38%
0–45%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–210%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–25%
2–34%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Emirates Club or draw
31%
Emirates Club or Al Ain
83%
Draw or Al Ain
86%

Winning margin

Emirates Club wins by 2+
5%
Al Ain wins by 2+
47%

Team goals

Emirates Club 1+ goals
64%
Emirates Club 2+ goals
28%
Emirates Club 3+ goals
9%
Al Ain 1+ goals
92%
Al Ain 2+ goals
71%
Al Ain 3+ goals
45%

Draw no bet

Emirates Club (draw refunded)
17%
Al Ain (draw refunded)
83%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Emirates Club at home — creates 1.22, concedes 2.28 · 18 matches

Al Ain away — creates 2.75, concedes 0.85 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Emirates Club attack 1.22 + Al Ain defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.03

Al Ain attack 2.75 + Emirates Club defence 2.28 → ÷2 → 2.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Emirates Club scores more
14%
level
17%
Al Ain scores more
69%

Al Ain at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Al Ain will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'
Hussein El Shahat
18'
B. Ibini-Isei↳ Bakari Kone
21'
M. Berg↳ Hussein El Shahat
46'
Eisa Ali← B. Ibini-Isei
71'
Diaky Ibrahim← M. Berg
76'
Amer Omar← Mohammed Saeed
76'
Jamal Maroof← Rayan Yaslam Mohamad
78'
Caio↳ Hussein El Shahat
85'
Fahad Khalfan Ali← Khaled Ambar
85'
Ahmed Barman← Bandar Mohammed

League #301: Emirates Club 1–3 Al Ain

Al Ain beat Emirates Club 3-1 in League #301 on August 31, 2018.

Goals: Hussein El Shahat (2'), B. Ibini-Isei (18'), M. Berg (21'), Caio (78').

The match was played at Emirates Club Stadium (Rās al-Khaymah (Ras al-Khaimah)).