Fagiano Okayama 2–2 Machida Zelvia: Result & Stats

Fagiano Okayama

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Machida Zelvia

D. Iwamasa 38'

Y. Oshitani 5'

K. Suzuki 59'

Y. Nakashima 31'

4/29/2016

J2 League · Round 10City Light Stadium (Okayama)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 126+ matches

Fagiano Okayama36%

×Draw28%

Machida Zelvia36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fagiano OkayamaExpected goals in this matchMachida Zelvia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

Fagiano Okayama

1.17

Machida Zelvia

1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 146 home / 126 away

1.24

creates per match

1.35

0.99

allows per match

1.10

creates per match

Fagiano Okayama

1.24

Machida Zelvia

1.35

allows per match

Fagiano Okayama

0.99

Machida Zelvia

1.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fagiano Okayama+0.00on par

Machida Zelvia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fagiano Okayama ↓

Machida Zelvia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Fagiano Okayama or draw

64%

Fagiano Okayama or Machida Zelvia

72%

Draw or Machida Zelvia

64%

Winning margin

Fagiano Okayama wins by 2+

15%

Machida Zelvia wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Fagiano Okayama 1+ goals

69%

Fagiano Okayama 2+ goals

33%

Fagiano Okayama 3+ goals

11%

Machida Zelvia 1+ goals

69%

Machida Zelvia 2+ goals

33%

Machida Zelvia 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Fagiano Okayama (draw refunded)

50%

Machida Zelvia (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fagiano Okayama at home — creates 1.24, concedes 0.99 · 146 matches

Machida Zelvia away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.10 · 126 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fagiano Okayama attack 1.24 + Machida Zelvia defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.17

Machida Zelvia attack 1.35 + Fagiano Okayama defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Fagiano Okayama scores more

36%

level

28%

Machida Zelvia scores more

36%

Fagiano Okayama at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Fagiano Okayama will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'

31'

38'

59'

74'

K. Shigematsu← T. Yazawa

75'

Y. Toyokawa← D. Ito

83'

M. Mimura← A. Kaji

88'

H. Okamoto← Y. Oshitani

90'

T. Miyazaki← K. Morimura