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Cerezo Osaka vs Kamatamare Sanuki — J2 League 2018

Cerezo Osaka
Cerezo Osaka
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 0
Kamatamare Sanuki
Kamatamare Sanuki
R. Matsuda 90+2'
Y. Kakitani 10'
H. Nishi 90+5'
K. Fujii 80'
K. Baba 78'
6/4/2016J2 LeagueJ2 League · Round 16Yanmar Stadium Nagai (Ōsaka (Osaka))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Cerezo Osaka49%
×Draw24%
Kamatamare Sanuki27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cerezo Osaka
1.72
Kamatamare Sanuki
1.23

Cerezo Osaka creates 40% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 36 away

creates per match

Cerezo Osaka
1.60
Kamatamare Sanuki
0.86

allows per match

Cerezo Osaka
1.60
Kamatamare Sanuki
1.83

finishing

Cerezo Osaka+0.00on par
Kamatamare Sanuki+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cerezo Osaka ↓

Kamatamare Sanuki →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Cerezo Osaka or draw
73%
Cerezo Osaka or Kamatamare Sanuki
76%
Draw or Kamatamare Sanuki
51%

Winning margin

Cerezo Osaka wins by 2+
26%
Kamatamare Sanuki wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Cerezo Osaka 1+ goals
82%
Cerezo Osaka 2+ goals
51%
Cerezo Osaka 3+ goals
25%
Kamatamare Sanuki 1+ goals
71%
Kamatamare Sanuki 2+ goals
35%
Kamatamare Sanuki 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Cerezo Osaka (draw refunded)
64%
Kamatamare Sanuki (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cerezo Osaka at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.60 · 10 matches

Kamatamare Sanuki away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.83 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cerezo Osaka attack 1.60 + Kamatamare Sanuki defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.72

Kamatamare Sanuki attack 0.86 + Cerezo Osaka defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Cerezo Osaka scores more
49%
level
24%
Kamatamare Sanuki scores more
27%

Cerezo Osaka at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Cerezo Osaka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'
Y. Kakitani
60'
K. Sekiguchi← S. Kiyohara
66'
Miguel← R. Nagata
74'
H. Hashimoto← Bruno Meneghel
78'
K. Baba
80'
K. Fujii
81'
R. Sawakami← K. Sugimoto
90+6'
Y. Morikawa← H. Nakama
90+2'
R. Matsuda
90+5'
H. Nishi

Match Recap: Cerezo Osaka vs Kamatamare Sanuki

Kamatamare Sanuki beat Cerezo Osaka 3-2 in J2 League on June 4, 2016.

Goals: Y. Kakitani (10'), K. Baba (78'), K. Fujii (80'), R. Matsuda (90+2'), H. Nishi (90+5').

The match was played at Yanmar Stadium Nagai (Ōsaka (Osaka)).