Charlotte Eagles 0–3 Tormenta II: Result & Stats

Charlotte Eagles

FT

0 – 3

Tormenta II

6/22/2021

USL League Two · Round 33Charlotte Christian Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Charlotte Eagles33%

×Draw22%

Tormenta II45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Charlotte EaglesExpected goals in this matchTormenta II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.98

Charlotte Eagles

1.67

Tormenta II

1.98

Tormenta II creates 19% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 23 away

2.09

creates per match

2.13

1.83

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Charlotte Eagles

2.09

Tormenta II

2.13

allows per match

Charlotte Eagles

1.83

Tormenta II

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Charlotte Eagles+0.00on par

Tormenta II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Charlotte Eagles ↓

Tormenta II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Charlotte Eagles or draw

55%

Charlotte Eagles or Tormenta II

78%

Draw or Tormenta II

67%

Winning margin

Charlotte Eagles wins by 2+

16%

Tormenta II wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Charlotte Eagles 1+ goals

81%

Charlotte Eagles 2+ goals

50%

Charlotte Eagles 3+ goals

23%

Tormenta II 1+ goals

86%

Tormenta II 2+ goals

59%

Tormenta II 3+ goals

31%

Draw no bet

Charlotte Eagles (draw refunded)

42%

Tormenta II (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Charlotte Eagles at home — creates 2.09, concedes 1.83 · 46 matches

Tormenta II away — creates 2.13, concedes 1.26 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Charlotte Eagles attack 2.09 + Tormenta II defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.67

Tormenta II attack 2.13 + Charlotte Eagles defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Charlotte Eagles scores more

33%

level

22%

Tormenta II scores more

45%

Tormenta II at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Tormenta II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff