Charlestown City Blues 4–0 Adamstown Rosebuds

Charlestown City Blues

FT

4 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Adamstown Rosebuds

5/26/2024

Northern NSW NPL · Round 13Lisle Carr Oval

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Charlestown City Blues58%

×Draw20%

Adamstown Rosebuds22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Charlestown City BluesExpected goals in this matchAdamstown Rosebuds

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.27

1.33

Charlestown City Blues

2.27

Adamstown Rosebuds

1.33

Charlestown City Blues creates 71% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 77 away

1.66

creates per match

1.19

1.48

allows per match

2.88

creates per match

Charlestown City Blues

1.66

Adamstown Rosebuds

1.19

allows per match

Charlestown City Blues

1.48

Adamstown Rosebuds

2.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Charlestown City Blues+0.00on par

Adamstown Rosebuds+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Charlestown City Blues ↓

Adamstown Rosebuds →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Charlestown City Blues or draw

78%

Charlestown City Blues or Adamstown Rosebuds

80%

Draw or Adamstown Rosebuds

42%

Winning margin

Charlestown City Blues wins by 2+

36%

Adamstown Rosebuds wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Charlestown City Blues 1+ goals

90%

Charlestown City Blues 2+ goals

66%

Charlestown City Blues 3+ goals

39%

Adamstown Rosebuds 1+ goals

74%

Adamstown Rosebuds 2+ goals

38%

Adamstown Rosebuds 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Charlestown City Blues (draw refunded)

73%

Adamstown Rosebuds (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Charlestown City Blues at home — creates 1.66, concedes 1.48 · 79 matches

Adamstown Rosebuds away — creates 1.19, concedes 2.88 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Charlestown City Blues attack 1.66 + Adamstown Rosebuds defence 2.88 → ÷2 → 2.27

Adamstown Rosebuds attack 1.19 + Charlestown City Blues defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Charlestown City Blues scores more

58%

level

20%

Adamstown Rosebuds scores more

22%

Charlestown City Blues at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Charlestown City Blues will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff