Charleston Battery 3–1 Ventura County

Charleston Battery

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Ventura County

10/20/2021

USL Championship · Round 46Patriots Point

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Charleston Battery53%

×Draw22%

Ventura County25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Charleston BatteryExpected goals in this matchVentura County

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.96

1.27

Charleston Battery

1.96

Ventura County

1.27

Charleston Battery creates 54% more chances

Season form · 137 home / 77 away

1.89

creates per match

1.39

1.15

allows per match

2.04

creates per match

Charleston Battery

1.89

Ventura County

1.39

allows per match

Charleston Battery

1.15

Ventura County

2.04

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Charleston Battery+0.00on par

Ventura County+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Charleston Battery ↓

Ventura County →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Charleston Battery or draw

75%

Charleston Battery or Ventura County

78%

Draw or Ventura County

47%

Winning margin

Charleston Battery wins by 2+

31%

Ventura County wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Charleston Battery 1+ goals

86%

Charleston Battery 2+ goals

58%

Charleston Battery 3+ goals

31%

Ventura County 1+ goals

72%

Ventura County 2+ goals

36%

Ventura County 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Charleston Battery (draw refunded)

68%

Ventura County (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Charleston Battery at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.15 · 137 matches

Ventura County away — creates 1.39, concedes 2.04 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Charleston Battery attack 1.89 + Ventura County defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 1.96

Ventura County attack 1.39 + Charleston Battery defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Charleston Battery scores more

53%

level

22%

Ventura County scores more

25%

Charleston Battery at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Charleston Battery will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff