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Charleston Battery vs Tulsa Roughnecks — USL Championship 2018

Charleston Battery
Charleston Battery
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Tulsa Roughnecks
Tulsa Roughnecks
3/13/2022USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 1Patriots Point

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 130+ matches

Charleston Battery53%
×Draw23%
Tulsa Roughnecks24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Charleston Battery
1.85
Tulsa Roughnecks
1.17

Charleston Battery creates 58% more chances

Season form · 137 home / 130 away

creates per match

Charleston Battery
1.89
Tulsa Roughnecks
1.19

allows per match

Charleston Battery
1.15
Tulsa Roughnecks
1.81

finishing

Charleston Battery+0.00on par
Tulsa Roughnecks+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Charleston Battery ↓

Tulsa Roughnecks →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Charleston Battery or draw
76%
Charleston Battery or Tulsa Roughnecks
77%
Draw or Tulsa Roughnecks
47%

Winning margin

Charleston Battery wins by 2+
30%
Tulsa Roughnecks wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Charleston Battery 1+ goals
84%
Charleston Battery 2+ goals
55%
Charleston Battery 3+ goals
28%
Tulsa Roughnecks 1+ goals
69%
Tulsa Roughnecks 2+ goals
33%
Tulsa Roughnecks 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Charleston Battery (draw refunded)
69%
Tulsa Roughnecks (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Charleston Battery at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.15 · 137 matches

Tulsa Roughnecks away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.81 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Charleston Battery attack 1.89 + Tulsa Roughnecks defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.85

Tulsa Roughnecks attack 1.19 + Charleston Battery defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Charleston Battery scores more
53%
level
23%
Tulsa Roughnecks scores more
24%

Charleston Battery at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Charleston Battery will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Charleston Battery vs Tulsa Roughnecks

Charleston Battery beat Tulsa Roughnecks 1-0 in USL Championship on March 13, 2022.

The match was played at Patriots Point in Mount Pleasant, South Carolina.