Charleston Battery vs Tampa Bay Rowdies — USL Championship 2025
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 26+ matches
Charleston Battery57%
Tampa Bay Rowdies21%✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Charleston Battery creates 82% more chances
Season form · 26 home / 26 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over57
- Under43
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes55
- No45
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Charleston Battery ↓
Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Charleston Battery at home — creates 2.62, concedes 0.88 · 26 matches
Tampa Bay Rowdies away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.19 · 26 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Charleston Battery attack 2.62 + Tampa Bay Rowdies defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.91
Tampa Bay Rowdies attack 1.23 + Charleston Battery defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.05
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 57%?"
Charleston Battery at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 57% does not mean "Charleston Battery will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Tampa Bay Rowdies substitutes
FC Tulsa
Sacramento Republic
New Mexico United
El Paso Locomotive
San Antonio
Phoenix Rising
Orange County SC
Colorado Springs
Lexington
Oakland Roots
Monterey Bay
Las Vegas Lights
Louisville CityCharleston Battery
North Carolina
Hartford Athletic
Pittsburgh Riverhounds
Loudoun United
Rhode Island
Detroit City
Indy ElevenTampa Bay Rowdies
Miami FC
Birmingham LegionIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Charleston Battery host Tampa Bay Rowdies on Saturday, 5 April 2025 at 21:30. The match is part of the USL Championship 2025/2026 season.
USL Championship: Charleston Battery 2–1 Tampa Bay Rowdies
Charleston Battery beat Tampa Bay Rowdies 2-1 in USL Championship on April 5, 2025.
Goals: C. Jennings (45' pen), M. Myers (73'), W. Pacius (75').
The match was played at Patriots Point Soccer Complex.