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Charleston Battery vs Sporting KC II — USL Championship 2018

Charleston Battery
Charleston Battery
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Sporting KC II
Sporting KC II
6/22/2019USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 28MUSC Health Stadium (Charleston, South Carolina)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Charleston Battery57%
×Draw21%
Sporting KC II21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Charleston Battery
2.04
Sporting KC II
1.17

Charleston Battery creates 74% more chances

Season form · 137 home / 66 away

creates per match

Charleston Battery
1.89
Sporting KC II
1.18

allows per match

Charleston Battery
1.15
Sporting KC II
2.18

finishing

Charleston Battery+0.00on par
Sporting KC II+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Charleston Battery ↓

Sporting KC II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Charleston Battery or draw
79%
Charleston Battery or Sporting KC II
79%
Draw or Sporting KC II
43%

Winning margin

Charleston Battery wins by 2+
34%
Sporting KC II wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Charleston Battery 1+ goals
87%
Charleston Battery 2+ goals
60%
Charleston Battery 3+ goals
33%
Sporting KC II 1+ goals
69%
Sporting KC II 2+ goals
33%
Sporting KC II 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Charleston Battery (draw refunded)
73%
Sporting KC II (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Charleston Battery at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.15 · 137 matches

Sporting KC II away — creates 1.18, concedes 2.18 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Charleston Battery attack 1.89 + Sporting KC II defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 2.04

Sporting KC II attack 1.18 + Charleston Battery defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Charleston Battery scores more
57%
level
21%
Sporting KC II scores more
21%

Charleston Battery at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Charleston Battery will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Charleston Battery 1 – 1 Sporting KC II

Charleston Battery and Sporting KC II drew 1-1 in USL Championship on June 22, 2019.

The match was played at MUSC Health Stadium (Charleston, South Carolina).