Charleston Battery 4–1 Savannah Clovers

Charleston Battery

4 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Savannah Clovers

4/5/2023

US Open Cup · 2nd RoundPatriots Point

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Charleston Battery73%

×Draw17%

Savannah Clovers10%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Charleston BatteryExpected goals in this matchSavannah Clovers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.33

0.75

Charleston Battery

2.33

Savannah Clovers

0.75

Charleston Battery creates 211% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 3 away

2.00

creates per match

1.00

0.50

allows per match

2.67

creates per match

Charleston Battery

2.00

Savannah Clovers

1.00

allows per match

Charleston Battery

0.50

Savannah Clovers

2.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Charleston Battery+0.00on par

Savannah Clovers+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Charleston Battery ↓

Savannah Clovers →

0–05%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1–011%

1–18%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2–013%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–010%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–06%

4–14%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Charleston Battery or draw

90%

Charleston Battery or Savannah Clovers

83%

Draw or Savannah Clovers

27%

Winning margin

Charleston Battery wins by 2+

49%

Savannah Clovers wins by 2+

Team goals

Charleston Battery 1+ goals

90%

Charleston Battery 2+ goals

67%

Charleston Battery 3+ goals

41%

Savannah Clovers 1+ goals

53%

Savannah Clovers 2+ goals

17%

Savannah Clovers 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Charleston Battery (draw refunded)

87%

Savannah Clovers (draw refunded)

13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Charleston Battery at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.50 · 6 matches

Savannah Clovers away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Charleston Battery attack 2.00 + Savannah Clovers defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.33

Savannah Clovers attack 1.00 + Charleston Battery defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 73%?"

Charleston Battery scores more

73%

level

17%

Savannah Clovers scores more

10%

Charleston Battery at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Charleston Battery will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff