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Charleston Battery vs Louisville City — USL Championship 2026

Charleston Battery
Charleston Battery
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Louisville City
Louisville City
11/4/2023USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Conference - FinalsPatriots Point

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 130+ matches

Charleston Battery40%
×Draw25%
Louisville City35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Charleston Battery
1.50
Louisville City
1.37

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 137 home / 130 away

creates per match

Charleston Battery
1.89
Louisville City
1.59

allows per match

Charleston Battery
1.15
Louisville City
1.12

finishing

Charleston Battery+0.00on par
Louisville City+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Charleston Battery ↓

Louisville City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Charleston Battery or draw
65%
Charleston Battery or Louisville City
75%
Draw or Louisville City
60%

Winning margin

Charleston Battery wins by 2+
20%
Louisville City wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Charleston Battery 1+ goals
78%
Charleston Battery 2+ goals
44%
Charleston Battery 3+ goals
19%
Louisville City 1+ goals
75%
Louisville City 2+ goals
40%
Louisville City 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Charleston Battery (draw refunded)
54%
Louisville City (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Charleston Battery at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.15 · 137 matches

Louisville City away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.12 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Charleston Battery attack 1.89 + Louisville City defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.50

Louisville City attack 1.59 + Charleston Battery defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Charleston Battery scores more
40%
level
25%
Louisville City scores more
35%

Charleston Battery at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Charleston Battery will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Charleston Battery vs Louisville City

Charleston Battery beat Louisville City 2-1 in USL Championship on November 4, 2023.

The match was played at Patriots Point in Mount Pleasant, South Carolina.