Charleston Battery vs Indy Eleven

Charleston Battery

Preview

22:00

Indy Eleven

10/24/2026

USL Championship · Group StagePatriots Point Soccer Complex

Big match

52%

Charleston Battery

model favours

52%24%25%

65% of Indy Eleven’s goals come after the 75th minute

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

54%

over 2.5 goals

55%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 130+ matches

Charleston Battery52%

×Draw24%

Indy Eleven25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Charleston BatteryExpected goals in this matchIndy Eleven

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

1.12

Charleston Battery

1.73

Indy Eleven

1.12

Charleston Battery creates 54% more chances

Season form · 138 home / 130 away

1.88

creates per match

1.10

1.14

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Charleston Battery

1.88

Indy Eleven

1.10

allows per match

Charleston Battery

1.14

Indy Eleven

1.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Charleston Battery+0.00on par

Indy Eleven+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Charleston Battery ↓

Indy Eleven →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Charleston Battery or draw

75%

Charleston Battery or Indy Eleven

76%

Draw or Indy Eleven

48%

Winning margin

Charleston Battery wins by 2+

28%

Indy Eleven wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Charleston Battery 1+ goals

82%

Charleston Battery 2+ goals

52%

Charleston Battery 3+ goals

25%

Indy Eleven 1+ goals

67%

Indy Eleven 2+ goals

31%

Indy Eleven 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Charleston Battery (draw refunded)

68%

Indy Eleven (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Charleston Battery at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.14 · 138 matches

Indy Eleven away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.58 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Charleston Battery attack 1.88 + Indy Eleven defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.73

Indy Eleven attack 1.10 + Charleston Battery defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Charleston Battery scores more

52%

level

24%

Indy Eleven scores more

25%

Charleston Battery at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Charleston Battery will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Indy Eleven score first in only 26% of matches
Charleston Battery score first in only 33% of matches
36% of Charleston Battery’s goals come after the 75th minute
Their last 10 meetings averaged 4.3 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form

Battery

DDLWW

Eleven

LLWDL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff