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Charleroi W vs Standard Liege W — Super League Women 2018

Charleroi W
Charleroi W
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Standard Liege W
Standard Liege W
12/15/2023Super League WomenSuper League Women · Round 12Complexe De Marcinelle Terrein 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Charleroi W18%
×Draw20%
Standard Liege W61%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Charleroi W
1.10
Standard Liege W
2.17

Standard Liege W creates 97% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 103 away

creates per match

Charleroi W
0.79
Standard Liege W
1.76

allows per match

Charleroi W
2.58
Standard Liege W
1.41

finishing

Charleroi W+0.00on par
Standard Liege W+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Charleroi W ↓

Standard Liege W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–29%
0–37%
0–44%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–25%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Charleroi W or draw
39%
Charleroi W or Standard Liege W
80%
Draw or Standard Liege W
82%

Winning margin

Charleroi W wins by 2+
7%
Standard Liege W wins by 2+
38%

Team goals

Charleroi W 1+ goals
67%
Charleroi W 2+ goals
30%
Charleroi W 3+ goals
10%
Standard Liege W 1+ goals
89%
Standard Liege W 2+ goals
64%
Standard Liege W 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

Charleroi W (draw refunded)
23%
Standard Liege W (draw refunded)
77%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Charleroi W at home — creates 0.79, concedes 2.58 · 52 matches

Standard Liege W away — creates 1.76, concedes 1.41 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Charleroi W attack 0.79 + Standard Liege W defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.10

Standard Liege W attack 1.76 + Charleroi W defence 2.58 → ÷2 → 2.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Charleroi W scores more
18%
level
20%
Standard Liege W scores more
61%

Standard Liege W at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Standard Liege W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League Women: Charleroi W 0–2 Standard Liege W

Standard Liege W beat Charleroi W 2-0 in Super League Women on December 15, 2023.

The match was played at Complexe De Marcinelle Terrein 3 in Marcinelle.