Charleroi W 0–4 Eendracht Aalst W: Result & Stats

Charleroi W

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 1

Eendracht Aalst W

4/27/2022

Super League Women · Relegation Round - 8Complexe De Marcinelle Terrein 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Charleroi W41%

×Draw21%

Eendracht Aalst W37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Charleroi WExpected goals in this matchEendracht Aalst W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.94

1.83

Charleroi W

1.94

Eendracht Aalst W

1.83

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 52 home / 40 away

0.79

creates per match

1.07

2.58

allows per match

3.08

creates per match

Charleroi W

0.79

Eendracht Aalst W

1.07

allows per match

Charleroi W

2.58

Eendracht Aalst W

3.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Charleroi W+0.00on par

Eendracht Aalst W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Charleroi W ↓

Eendracht Aalst W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

52%48%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Charleroi W or draw

63%

Charleroi W or Eendracht Aalst W

79%

Draw or Eendracht Aalst W

59%

Winning margin

Charleroi W wins by 2+

22%

Eendracht Aalst W wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Charleroi W 1+ goals

86%

Charleroi W 2+ goals

58%

Charleroi W 3+ goals

30%

Eendracht Aalst W 1+ goals

84%

Eendracht Aalst W 2+ goals

54%

Eendracht Aalst W 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Charleroi W (draw refunded)

53%

Eendracht Aalst W (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Charleroi W at home — creates 0.79, concedes 2.58 · 52 matches

Eendracht Aalst W away — creates 1.07, concedes 3.08 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Charleroi W attack 0.79 + Eendracht Aalst W defence 3.08 → ÷2 → 1.94

Eendracht Aalst W attack 1.07 + Charleroi W defence 2.58 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Charleroi W scores more

41%

level

21%

Eendracht Aalst W scores more

37%

Charleroi W at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Charleroi W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff