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Charleroi W vs Anderlecht W — Super League Women 2018

Charleroi W
Charleroi W
FT
0 – 2
Anderlecht W
Anderlecht W
11/19/2021Super League WomenSuper League Women · Round 11Complexe De Marcinelle Terrein 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Charleroi W9%
×Draw15%
Anderlecht W76%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Charleroi W
0.81
Anderlecht W
2.65

Anderlecht W creates 227% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 99 away

creates per match

Charleroi W
0.79
Anderlecht W
2.72

allows per match

Charleroi W
2.58
Anderlecht W
0.84

finishing

Charleroi W+0.00on par
Anderlecht W+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Charleroi W ↓

Anderlecht W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–18%
0–211%
0–310%
0–47%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–24%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (11%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Charleroi W or draw
24%
Charleroi W or Anderlecht W
85%
Draw or Anderlecht W
91%

Winning margin

Charleroi W wins by 2+
3%
Anderlecht W wins by 2+
55%

Team goals

Charleroi W 1+ goals
56%
Charleroi W 2+ goals
19%
Charleroi W 3+ goals
5%
Anderlecht W 1+ goals
93%
Anderlecht W 2+ goals
74%
Anderlecht W 3+ goals
48%

Draw no bet

Charleroi W (draw refunded)
11%
Anderlecht W (draw refunded)
89%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Charleroi W at home — creates 0.79, concedes 2.58 · 52 matches

Anderlecht W away — creates 2.72, concedes 0.84 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Charleroi W attack 0.79 + Anderlecht W defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.81

Anderlecht W attack 2.72 + Charleroi W defence 2.58 → ÷2 → 2.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Charleroi W scores more
9%
level
15%
Anderlecht W scores more
76%

Anderlecht W at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Anderlecht W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Charleroi W vs Anderlecht W

Anderlecht W beat Charleroi W 2-0 in Super League Women on November 19, 2021.

The match was played at Complexe De Marcinelle Terrein 3 in Marcinelle.