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Charleroi vs Lokeren — Jupiler Pro League 2018

Charleroi
Charleroi
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Lokeren
Lokeren
9/29/2018Jupiler Pro LeagueJupiler Pro League · Round 9Stade du Pays de Charleroi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Charleroi48%
×Draw26%
Lokeren27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Charleroi
1.53
Lokeren
1.08

Charleroi creates 42% more chances

Season form · 139 home / 32 away

creates per match

Charleroi
1.43
Lokeren
1.06

allows per match

Charleroi
1.11
Lokeren
1.63

finishing

Charleroi+0.00on par
Lokeren+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Charleroi ↓

Lokeren →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Charleroi or draw
73%
Charleroi or Lokeren
74%
Draw or Lokeren
52%

Winning margin

Charleroi wins by 2+
24%
Lokeren wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Charleroi 1+ goals
78%
Charleroi 2+ goals
45%
Charleroi 3+ goals
20%
Lokeren 1+ goals
66%
Lokeren 2+ goals
29%
Lokeren 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Charleroi (draw refunded)
64%
Lokeren (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Charleroi at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.11 · 139 matches

Lokeren away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.63 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Charleroi attack 1.43 + Lokeren defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.53

Lokeren attack 1.06 + Charleroi defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Charleroi scores more
48%
level
26%
Lokeren scores more
27%

Charleroi at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Charleroi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Jupiler Pro League: Charleroi 2–1 Lokeren

Charleroi beat Lokeren 2-1 in Jupiler Pro League on September 29, 2018.

The match was played at Stade du Pays de Charleroi in Charleroi.