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Charleroi vs Kortrijk — Jupiler Pro League 2018

Charleroi
Charleroi
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Kortrijk
Kortrijk
5/11/2024Jupiler Pro LeagueJupiler Pro League · Relegation Round - 6Stade du Pays de Charleroi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 116+ matches

Charleroi47%
×Draw26%
Kortrijk28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Charleroi
1.53
Kortrijk
1.11

Charleroi creates 38% more chances

Season form · 139 home / 116 away

creates per match

Charleroi
1.43
Kortrijk
1.11

allows per match

Charleroi
1.11
Kortrijk
1.63

finishing

Charleroi+0.00on par
Kortrijk+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Charleroi ↓

Kortrijk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Charleroi or draw
72%
Charleroi or Kortrijk
74%
Draw or Kortrijk
53%

Winning margin

Charleroi wins by 2+
24%
Kortrijk wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Charleroi 1+ goals
78%
Charleroi 2+ goals
45%
Charleroi 3+ goals
20%
Kortrijk 1+ goals
67%
Kortrijk 2+ goals
30%
Kortrijk 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Charleroi (draw refunded)
63%
Kortrijk (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Charleroi at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.11 · 139 matches

Kortrijk away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.63 · 116 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Charleroi attack 1.43 + Kortrijk defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.53

Kortrijk attack 1.11 + Charleroi defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Charleroi scores more
47%
level
26%
Kortrijk scores more
28%

Charleroi at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Charleroi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Jupiler Pro League: Charleroi 3–1 Kortrijk

Charleroi beat Kortrijk 3-1 in Jupiler Pro League on May 11, 2024.

The match was played at Stade du Pays de Charleroi in Charleroi.