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Charleroi vs Anderlecht — Jupiler Pro League 2018

Charleroi
Charleroi
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Anderlecht
Anderlecht
2/16/2025Jupiler Pro LeagueJupiler Pro League · Round 26Stade du Pays de Charleroi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

Charleroi47%
×Draw24%
Anderlecht30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Charleroi
1.70
Anderlecht
1.31

Charleroi creates 30% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 23 away

creates per match

Charleroi
1.53
Anderlecht
1.33

allows per match

Charleroi
1.29
Anderlecht
1.87

finishing

Charleroi-0.15scores less
Anderlecht-0.20scores less

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Charleroi ↓

Anderlecht →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Charleroi or draw
70%
Charleroi or Anderlecht
76%
Draw or Anderlecht
53%

Winning margin

Charleroi wins by 2+
25%
Anderlecht wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Charleroi 1+ goals
82%
Charleroi 2+ goals
51%
Charleroi 3+ goals
24%
Anderlecht 1+ goals
73%
Anderlecht 2+ goals
38%
Anderlecht 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Charleroi (draw refunded)
61%
Anderlecht (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Charleroi at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.29 · 21 matches

Anderlecht away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.87 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Charleroi attack 1.53 + Anderlecht defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.70

Anderlecht attack 1.33 + Charleroi defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Charleroi scores more
47%
level
24%
Anderlecht scores more
30%

Charleroi at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Charleroi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Charleroi vs Anderlecht

Anderlecht beat Charleroi 1-0 in Jupiler Pro League on February 16, 2025.

The match was played at Stade du Pays de Charleroi in Charleroi.