Chapungu United 2–1 Mushowani Stars: Result & Stats

Chapungu United

FT

2 – 1

Mushowani Stars

5/5/2019

Premier Soccer League · Round 6Mandava Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Chapungu United48%

×Draw26%

Mushowani Stars25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chapungu UnitedExpected goals in this matchMushowani Stars

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

0.98

Chapungu United

1.46

Mushowani Stars

0.98

Chapungu United creates 49% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 18 away

1.35

creates per match

0.83

1.12

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Chapungu United

1.35

Mushowani Stars

0.83

allows per match

Chapungu United

1.12

Mushowani Stars

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chapungu United+0.00on par

Mushowani Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chapungu United ↓

Mushowani Stars →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Chapungu United or draw

75%

Chapungu United or Mushowani Stars

74%

Draw or Mushowani Stars

52%

Winning margin

Chapungu United wins by 2+

24%

Mushowani Stars wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Chapungu United 1+ goals

77%

Chapungu United 2+ goals

43%

Chapungu United 3+ goals

18%

Mushowani Stars 1+ goals

62%

Mushowani Stars 2+ goals

26%

Mushowani Stars 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Chapungu United (draw refunded)

66%

Mushowani Stars (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chapungu United at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.12 · 17 matches

Mushowani Stars away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.56 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chapungu United attack 1.35 + Mushowani Stars defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.46

Mushowani Stars attack 0.83 + Chapungu United defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Chapungu United scores more

48%

level

26%

Mushowani Stars scores more

25%

Chapungu United at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Chapungu United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff