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Chapungu United vs Bulawayo Chiefs — Premier Soccer League 2026

Chapungu United
Chapungu United
FT
5 – 0
Bulawayo Chiefs
Bulawayo Chiefs
3/30/2019Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 1Mandava Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Chapungu United44%
×Draw28%
Bulawayo Chiefs28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chapungu United
1.29
Bulawayo Chiefs
0.97

Chapungu United creates 33% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 80 away

creates per match

Chapungu United
1.35
Bulawayo Chiefs
0.81

allows per match

Chapungu United
1.12
Bulawayo Chiefs
1.24

finishing

Chapungu United+0.00on par
Bulawayo Chiefs+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chapungu United ↓

Bulawayo Chiefs →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Chapungu United or draw
72%
Chapungu United or Bulawayo Chiefs
72%
Draw or Bulawayo Chiefs
56%

Winning margin

Chapungu United wins by 2+
20%
Bulawayo Chiefs wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Chapungu United 1+ goals
72%
Chapungu United 2+ goals
37%
Chapungu United 3+ goals
14%
Bulawayo Chiefs 1+ goals
62%
Bulawayo Chiefs 2+ goals
25%
Bulawayo Chiefs 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Chapungu United (draw refunded)
61%
Bulawayo Chiefs (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chapungu United at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.12 · 17 matches

Bulawayo Chiefs away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.24 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chapungu United attack 1.35 + Bulawayo Chiefs defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.29

Bulawayo Chiefs attack 0.81 + Chapungu United defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Chapungu United scores more
44%
level
28%
Bulawayo Chiefs scores more
28%

Chapungu United at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Chapungu United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Chapungu United vs Bulawayo Chiefs

Chapungu United beat Bulawayo Chiefs 5-0 in Premier Soccer League on March 30, 2019.

The match was played at Mandava Stadium in Zvishavane.