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Chapelton vs Faulkland — Premier League 2019

Chapelton
Chapelton
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Faulkland
Faulkland
2/7/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 13Jamaica College Ashenheim Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Chapelton45%
×Draw25%
Faulkland30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chapelton
1.55
Faulkland
1.20

Chapelton creates 29% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 13 away

creates per match

Chapelton
1.02
Faulkland
0.62

allows per match

Chapelton
1.77
Faulkland
2.08

finishing

Chapelton+0.00on par
Faulkland+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chapelton ↓

Faulkland →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Chapelton or draw
70%
Chapelton or Faulkland
75%
Draw or Faulkland
55%

Winning margin

Chapelton wins by 2+
23%
Faulkland wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Chapelton 1+ goals
79%
Chapelton 2+ goals
46%
Chapelton 3+ goals
20%
Faulkland 1+ goals
70%
Faulkland 2+ goals
34%
Faulkland 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Chapelton (draw refunded)
61%
Faulkland (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chapelton at home — creates 1.02, concedes 1.77 · 52 matches

Faulkland away — creates 0.62, concedes 2.08 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chapelton attack 1.02 + Faulkland defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.55

Faulkland attack 0.62 + Chapelton defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Chapelton scores more
45%
level
25%
Faulkland scores more
30%

Chapelton at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Chapelton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Chapelton 0–1 Faulkland

Faulkland beat Chapelton 1-0 in Premier League on February 7, 2023.

The match was played at Jamaica College Ashenheim Stadium in Kingston.