Chapecoense U20 0–2 Ituano U20: Result & Stats

Chapecoense U20

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Ituano U20

Vini Oliveira 30'

K. Gabriel 15'

4/9/2025

Brasileiro U20 B · 1st Phase - 3Estádio Municipal Josué Annoni

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Chapecoense U2012%

×Draw23%

Ituano U2065%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chapecoense U20Expected goals in this matchItuano U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.60

1.73

Chapecoense U20

0.60

Ituano U20

1.73

Ituano U20 creates 188% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 4 away

0.71

creates per match

1.75

1.71

allows per match

0.50

creates per match

Chapecoense U20

0.71

Ituano U20

1.75

allows per match

Chapecoense U20

1.71

Ituano U20

0.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chapecoense U20+0.00on par

Ituano U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chapecoense U20 ↓

Ituano U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–117%

0–215%

0–38%

0–44%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–02%

2–13%

2–23%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–00%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (17%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Chapecoense U20 or draw

35%

Chapecoense U20 or Ituano U20

77%

Draw or Ituano U20

88%

Winning margin

Chapecoense U20 wins by 2+

3%

Ituano U20 wins by 2+

37%

Team goals

Chapecoense U20 1+ goals

45%

Chapecoense U20 2+ goals

12%

Chapecoense U20 3+ goals

2%

Ituano U20 1+ goals

82%

Ituano U20 2+ goals

52%

Ituano U20 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Chapecoense U20 (draw refunded)

16%

Ituano U20 (draw refunded)

84%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chapecoense U20 at home — creates 0.71, concedes 1.71 · 7 matches

Ituano U20 away — creates 1.75, concedes 0.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chapecoense U20 attack 0.71 + Ituano U20 defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.60

Ituano U20 attack 1.75 + Chapecoense U20 defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Chapecoense U20 scores more

12%

level

23%

Ituano U20 scores more

65%

Ituano U20 at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Ituano U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'

K. Gabriel

30'

Vini Oliveira

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff