Chapecoense U20 2–3 Hercílio Luz U20

Chapecoense U20

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Hercílio Luz U20

Dacol Caua 90+2'

Rodrigo 43'

Miguel Ribeiro 71'

G. Aparecido 67'

Henrique 33'

7/14/2024

Catarinense U20 · 1st Phase - 21Estádio Municipal Josué Annoni

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Chapecoense U2050%

×Draw22%

Hercílio Luz U2028%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chapecoense U20Expected goals in this matchHercílio Luz U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.89

1.35

Chapecoense U20

1.89

Hercílio Luz U20

1.35

Chapecoense U20 creates 40% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 11 away

2.22

creates per match

1.55

1.15

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Chapecoense U20

2.22

Hercílio Luz U20

1.55

allows per match

Chapecoense U20

1.15

Hercílio Luz U20

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chapecoense U20+0.00on par

Hercílio Luz U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chapecoense U20 ↓

Hercílio Luz U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Chapecoense U20 or draw

72%

Chapecoense U20 or Hercílio Luz U20

78%

Draw or Hercílio Luz U20

50%

Winning margin

Chapecoense U20 wins by 2+

28%

Hercílio Luz U20 wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Chapecoense U20 1+ goals

85%

Chapecoense U20 2+ goals

56%

Chapecoense U20 3+ goals

29%

Hercílio Luz U20 1+ goals

74%

Hercílio Luz U20 2+ goals

39%

Hercílio Luz U20 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Chapecoense U20 (draw refunded)

65%

Hercílio Luz U20 (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chapecoense U20 at home — creates 2.22, concedes 1.15 · 27 matches

Hercílio Luz U20 away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.55 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chapecoense U20 attack 2.22 + Hercílio Luz U20 defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.89

Hercílio Luz U20 attack 1.55 + Chapecoense U20 defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Chapecoense U20 scores more

50%

level

22%

Hercílio Luz U20 scores more

28%

Chapecoense U20 at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Chapecoense U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

33'

Henrique

43'

Rodrigo

67'

G. Aparecido

71'

Miguel Ribeiro

90+2'

Dacol Caua

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff