Chapecoense-sc 0–0 Ponte Preta: Result & Stats

Chapecoense-sc

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Ponte Preta

5/21/2024

Serie B · Round 6Arena Condá

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Chapecoense-sc51%

×Draw25%

Ponte Preta24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chapecoense-scExpected goals in this matchPonte Preta

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

1.04

Chapecoense-sc

1.64

Ponte Preta

1.04

Chapecoense-sc creates 58% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 11 away

1.65

creates per match

0.96

1.12

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

Chapecoense-sc

1.65

Ponte Preta

0.96

allows per match

Chapecoense-sc

1.12

Ponte Preta

1.62

-0.56scores less than expected

finishing

-0.05on par

finishing

Chapecoense-sc-0.56scores less

Ponte Preta-0.05on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chapecoense-sc ↓

Ponte Preta →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Chapecoense-sc or draw

76%

Chapecoense-sc or Ponte Preta

75%

Draw or Ponte Preta

49%

Winning margin

Chapecoense-sc wins by 2+

27%

Ponte Preta wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Chapecoense-sc 1+ goals

81%

Chapecoense-sc 2+ goals

49%

Chapecoense-sc 3+ goals

23%

Ponte Preta 1+ goals

65%

Ponte Preta 2+ goals

28%

Ponte Preta 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Chapecoense-sc (draw refunded)

68%

Ponte Preta (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chapecoense-sc at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.12 · 11 matches

Ponte Preta away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.62 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chapecoense-sc attack 1.65 + Ponte Preta defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.64

Ponte Preta attack 0.96 + Chapecoense-sc defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Chapecoense-sc scores more

51%

level

25%

Ponte Preta scores more

24%

Chapecoense-sc at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Chapecoense-sc will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

33

Bruno Leonardo

Chapecoense-sc · D

7.7

Match Events

-5'

Matheus Régis

45+1'

Luis Haquín

46'

Maílton← Marcinho

46'

Rômulo← Giovanni Augusto

46'

Ramon← Lucas Buchecha

49'

Eduardo Doma

72'

Marlone← Thomás Bedinelli

72'

Ronaldo Mendes← JP Galvão

72'

Dodô← Dudu Vieira

80'

Régis← Foguinho

80'

Jeh← Gabriel Novaes

80'

Renato← Iago Dias

83'

Ronaldo Mendes

84'

Emerson Santos← Emerson

86'

Pedro Rocha

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Chapecoense-scPonte

Overview

57%Possession43%

24Total Shots10

6Corners4

5Fouls13

Shots

24Total Shots10

5On Target2

8Off Target7

11Blocked1

10Inside Box5

14Outside Box5

Passing

57%Possession43%

437Total Passes327

363Accurate Passes256

83%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

2Saves5

Discipline

5Fouls13

2Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards1

3Offsides3