Chapecoense-sc 1–2 Paysandu: Result & Stats

Chapecoense-sc

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Paysandu

Marcinho 16'

Netinho 82'

Leandro Vilela 45'

6/23/2024

Serie B · Round 12Arena Condá

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Chapecoense-sc51%

×Draw25%

Paysandu25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chapecoense-scExpected goals in this matchPaysandu

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

1.06

Chapecoense-sc

1.64

Paysandu

1.06

Chapecoense-sc creates 55% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 9 away

1.76

creates per match

1.02

1.09

allows per match

1.51

creates per match

Chapecoense-sc

1.76

Paysandu

1.02

allows per match

Chapecoense-sc

1.09

Paysandu

1.51

-0.62scores less than expected

finishing

+0.09on par

finishing

Chapecoense-sc-0.62scores less

Paysandu+0.09on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chapecoense-sc ↓

Paysandu →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

28%72%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Chapecoense-sc or draw

75%

Chapecoense-sc or Paysandu

75%

Draw or Paysandu

49%

Winning margin

Chapecoense-sc wins by 2+

27%

Paysandu wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Chapecoense-sc 1+ goals

81%

Chapecoense-sc 2+ goals

49%

Chapecoense-sc 3+ goals

23%

Paysandu 1+ goals

65%

Paysandu 2+ goals

29%

Paysandu 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Chapecoense-sc (draw refunded)

67%

Paysandu (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chapecoense-sc at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.09 · 7 matches

Paysandu away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.51 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chapecoense-sc attack 1.76 + Paysandu defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.64

Paysandu attack 1.02 + Chapecoense-sc defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Chapecoense-sc scores more

51%

level

25%

Paysandu scores more

25%

Chapecoense-sc at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Chapecoense-sc will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

Netinho

Paysandu · M

8.2

Match Events

12'

Michel Macedo← Edílson

16'

Marcinho↳ Giovanni Augusto

22'

Auremir

40'

Tarik Boschetti

45'

Leandro Vilela↳ Jean Dias

58'

Edinho← E. García

58'

Netinho← Juninho

63'

Thomás

66'

Rodrigo← Auremir

67'

Thayllon← Thomás Bedinelli

78'

Leandro Vilela

81'

Bryan← Jean Dias

82'

Val Soares← Leandro Vilela

82'

Netinho↳ Bryan

83'

Marlone← Giovanni Augusto

83'

Walterson← Rafael Carvalheira

90'

Rubens← Marcinho

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Chapecoense-scPaysandu

Overview

45%Possession55%

12Total Shots14

4Corners6

16Fouls16

Shots

12Total Shots14

3On Target6

5Off Target7

4Blocked1

8Inside Box7

4Outside Box7

Passing

45%Possession55%

322Total Passes383

236Accurate Passes305

73%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

Discipline

16Fouls16

3Yellow Cards1

1Offsides0