Chapecoense-sc 3–0 Londrina: Result & Stats

Chapecoense-sc

FT

3 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Londrina

Felipe Ferreira 75'

Dudu Vieira 58'

Cris Silva 53'

4/23/2023

Serie B · Round 2Arena Condá

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Chapecoense-sc55%

×Draw23%

Londrina21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chapecoense-scExpected goals in this matchLondrina

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

1.00

Chapecoense-sc

1.77

Londrina

1.00

Chapecoense-sc creates 77% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 10 away

1.73

creates per match

0.86

1.14

allows per match

1.80

creates per match

Chapecoense-sc

1.73

Londrina

0.86

allows per match

Chapecoense-sc

1.14

Londrina

1.80

-0.84scores less than expected

finishing

+0.34scores more than expected

finishing

Chapecoense-sc-0.84scores less

Londrina+0.34scores more

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chapecoense-sc ↓

Londrina →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Chapecoense-sc or draw

79%

Chapecoense-sc or Londrina

77%

Draw or Londrina

45%

Winning margin

Chapecoense-sc wins by 2+

31%

Londrina wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Chapecoense-sc 1+ goals

83%

Chapecoense-sc 2+ goals

53%

Chapecoense-sc 3+ goals

26%

Londrina 1+ goals

63%

Londrina 2+ goals

26%

Londrina 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Chapecoense-sc (draw refunded)

72%

Londrina (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chapecoense-sc at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.14 · 9 matches

Londrina away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.80 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chapecoense-sc attack 1.73 + Londrina defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.77

Londrina attack 0.86 + Chapecoense-sc defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Chapecoense-sc scores more

55%

level

23%

Londrina scores more

21%

Chapecoense-sc at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Chapecoense-sc will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

Cris Silva

Chapecoense-sc · D

8.5

Match Events

3'

Ribamar

24'

Gustavo SalomãoPenalty cancelled

27'

35'

45+4'

45+2'

45+6'

53'

Cris Silva↳ Bruno Nazário

54'

A. Udeh← Vinicius Barata

54'

Matheus Lucas← Hugo Cabral

57'

Felipe Ferreira← Richard Rodrigues

58'

Dudu Vieira

68'

Iago Dias← Higor Leite

69'

Giovanni Pavani← Bruno Elesbão

70'

Gustavo Cazonatti← P. Siles

75'

Felipe Ferreira↳ Cris Silva

81'

Caio Mancha← Paulinho Moccelin

84'

Gabriel Xavier← Bruno Nazário

84'

Kaio Mendes← Dudu Vieira

90+6'

Gabriel Xavier

90+1'

Iago Dias

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Chapecoense-scLondrina

Overview

48%Possession52%

24Total Shots14

7Corners8

18Fouls20

Shots

24Total Shots14

11On Target1

7Off Target8

6Blocked5

6Inside Box9

18Outside Box5

Passing

48%Possession52%

330Total Passes344

265Accurate Passes277

80%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

1Saves8

Discipline

18Fouls20

5Yellow Cards3

2Offsides2