Chapecoense-sc 0–4 Guarani Campinas: Result & Stats

Chapecoense-sc

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

Guarani Campinas

Caio Dantas 77', 55'

Marlon 25'

João Victor 4'

8/17/2024

Serie B · Round 21Arena Condá

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Chapecoense-sc48%

×Draw26%

Guarani Campinas25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chapecoense-scExpected goals in this matchGuarani Campinas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.49

1.00

Chapecoense-sc

1.49

Guarani Campinas

1.00

Chapecoense-sc creates 49% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 9 away

1.73

creates per match

0.86

1.14

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Chapecoense-sc

1.73

Guarani Campinas

0.86

allows per match

Chapecoense-sc

1.14

Guarani Campinas

1.25

-0.84scores less than expected

finishing

+0.03on par

finishing

Chapecoense-sc-0.84scores less

Guarani Campinas+0.03on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chapecoense-sc ↓

Guarani Campinas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Chapecoense-sc or draw

75%

Chapecoense-sc or Guarani Campinas

74%

Draw or Guarani Campinas

52%

Winning margin

Chapecoense-sc wins by 2+

24%

Guarani Campinas wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Chapecoense-sc 1+ goals

77%

Chapecoense-sc 2+ goals

44%

Chapecoense-sc 3+ goals

19%

Guarani Campinas 1+ goals

63%

Guarani Campinas 2+ goals

26%

Guarani Campinas 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Chapecoense-sc (draw refunded)

66%

Guarani Campinas (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chapecoense-sc at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.14 · 9 matches

Guarani Campinas away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.25 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chapecoense-sc attack 1.73 + Guarani Campinas defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.49

Guarani Campinas attack 0.86 + Chapecoense-sc defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Chapecoense-sc scores more

48%

level

26%

Guarani Campinas scores more

25%

Chapecoense-sc at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Chapecoense-sc will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

99

Caio Dantas

Guarani Campinas · F

9.3

Match Events

4'

João Victor↳ Caio Dantas

25'

Marlon

32'

Foguinho

46'

Marcelinho← Marcinho

46'

Giovanni Augusto← Jhonnathan

49'

Giovanni Augusto

55'

Caio Dantas↳ Airton

62'

Rafael Carvalheira

66'

Mário Sérgio← Perotti

66'

Thomás Bedinelli← Marlone

69'

Marlon

73'

Heitor← Airton

74'

Marlon Maranhão← João Victor

77'

Caio Dantas

78'

Anderson Leite← Matheus Bueno

78'

Luccas Paraizo← Caio Dantas

78'

Lucas Araújo← Marlon

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Chapecoense-scGuarani

Overview

65%Possession35%

11Total Shots15

1.85Expected Goals (xG)2.19

7Corners3

10Fouls6

Shots

11Total Shots15

4On Target6

6Off Target4

1Blocked5

6Inside Box7

5Outside Box8

Passing

65%Possession35%

550Total Passes298

489Accurate Passes231

89%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

10Fouls6

3Yellow Cards1

1Offsides2