Chapecoense-sc 0–4 Goias: Result & Stats | Serie B

Chapecoense-sc

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

Goias

J. Vásquez 74'

Lucas Ribeiro 64'

Tadeu 43' (pen)

Juninho 17'

10/21/2024

Serie B · Round 33Arena Condá

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Chapecoense-sc43%

×Draw25%

Goias32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chapecoense-scExpected goals in this matchGoias

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.27

Chapecoense-sc

1.50

Goias

1.27

Chapecoense-sc creates 18% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 21 away

1.60

creates per match

1.38

1.17

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Chapecoense-sc

1.60

Goias

1.38

allows per match

Chapecoense-sc

1.17

Goias

1.39

-0.68scores less than expected

finishing

-0.14scores less than expected

finishing

Chapecoense-sc-0.68scores less

Goias-0.14scores less

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chapecoense-sc ↓

Goias →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Chapecoense-sc or draw

68%

Chapecoense-sc or Goias

75%

Draw or Goias

57%

Winning margin

Chapecoense-sc wins by 2+

21%

Goias wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Chapecoense-sc 1+ goals

78%

Chapecoense-sc 2+ goals

44%

Chapecoense-sc 3+ goals

19%

Goias 1+ goals

72%

Goias 2+ goals

36%

Goias 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Chapecoense-sc (draw refunded)

57%

Goias (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chapecoense-sc at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.17 · 13 matches

Goias away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.39 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chapecoense-sc attack 1.60 + Goias defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.50

Goias attack 1.38 + Chapecoense-sc defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Chapecoense-sc scores more

43%

level

25%

Goias scores more

32%

Chapecoense-sc at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Chapecoense-sc will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14

Lucas Ribeiro

Goias · D

7.9

Match Events

17'

Juninho↳ Welliton

30'

João Paulo

30'

Breno Herculano

40'

Bruno Leonardo

43'

TadeuPenalty

46'

Giovanni Augusto← Italo

46'

Jenison← Mário Sérgio

64'

Lucas Ribeiro

66'

Maílton← Tárik

70'

J. Vásquez← Juninho

70'

Paulo Baya← Rildo

70'

Ian Luccas← Welliton

74'

J. Vásquez↳ Paulo Baya

78'

Jhon Vásquez

82'

Lucas Buchecha← Marcinho

82'

Marcelo Júnior← Marlone

82'

Diego Caito← Dieguinho

82'

Edson Felipe← Marcão

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Chapecoense-scGoias

Overview

63%Possession37%

19Total Shots15

1.12Expected Goals (xG)2.27

5Corners6

6Fouls12

Shots

19Total Shots15

3On Target5

9Off Target8

7Blocked2

11Inside Box10

8Outside Box5

Passing

63%Possession37%

463Total Passes272

403Accurate Passes206

87%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

6Fouls12

2Yellow Cards2