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Chapecoense-sc vs Botafogo SP — Serie B 2026

Chapecoense-sc
Chapecoense-sc
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Botafogo SP
Botafogo SP
11/11/2023Serie BSerie B · Round 36Arena Condá

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 96+ matches

Chapecoense-sc46%
×Draw29%
Botafogo SP25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chapecoense-sc
1.25
Botafogo SP
0.84

Chapecoense-sc creates 49% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 105 away

creates per match

Chapecoense-sc
1.18
Botafogo SP
0.76

allows per match

Chapecoense-sc
0.93
Botafogo SP
1.31

finishing

Chapecoense-sc+0.00on par
Botafogo SP+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chapecoense-sc ↓

Botafogo SP →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Chapecoense-sc or draw
75%
Chapecoense-sc or Botafogo SP
71%
Draw or Botafogo SP
54%

Winning margin

Chapecoense-sc wins by 2+
21%
Botafogo SP wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Chapecoense-sc 1+ goals
71%
Chapecoense-sc 2+ goals
36%
Chapecoense-sc 3+ goals
13%
Botafogo SP 1+ goals
57%
Botafogo SP 2+ goals
21%
Botafogo SP 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Chapecoense-sc (draw refunded)
65%
Botafogo SP (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chapecoense-sc at home — creates 1.18, concedes 0.93 · 96 matches

Botafogo SP away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.31 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chapecoense-sc attack 1.18 + Botafogo SP defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.25

Botafogo SP attack 0.76 + Chapecoense-sc defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Chapecoense-sc scores more
46%
level
29%
Botafogo SP scores more
25%

Chapecoense-sc at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Chapecoense-sc will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Chapecoense-sc vs Botafogo SP

Chapecoense-sc beat Botafogo SP 2-0 in Serie B on November 11, 2023.

The match was played at Arena Condá in Chapecó, Santa Catarina.