Chapecoense-sc 0–1 Atletico Goianiense

Chapecoense-sc

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Atletico Goianiense

Matheus Peixoto 90+6'

8/13/2023

Serie B · Round 23Arena Condá

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Chapecoense-sc46%

×Draw25%

Atletico Goianiense29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chapecoense-scExpected goals in this matchAtletico Goianiense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

1.16

Chapecoense-sc

1.55

Atletico Goianiense

1.16

Chapecoense-sc creates 34% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 17 away

1.60

creates per match

1.15

1.17

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Chapecoense-sc

1.60

Atletico Goianiense

1.15

allows per match

Chapecoense-sc

1.17

Atletico Goianiense

1.50

-0.68scores less than expected

finishing

-0.21scores less than expected

finishing

Chapecoense-sc-0.68scores less

Atletico Goianiense-0.21scores less

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chapecoense-sc ↓

Atletico Goianiense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Chapecoense-sc or draw

71%

Chapecoense-sc or Atletico Goianiense

75%

Draw or Atletico Goianiense

54%

Winning margin

Chapecoense-sc wins by 2+

23%

Atletico Goianiense wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Chapecoense-sc 1+ goals

79%

Chapecoense-sc 2+ goals

46%

Chapecoense-sc 3+ goals

20%

Atletico Goianiense 1+ goals

69%

Atletico Goianiense 2+ goals

32%

Atletico Goianiense 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Chapecoense-sc (draw refunded)

62%

Atletico Goianiense (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chapecoense-sc at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.17 · 13 matches

Atletico Goianiense away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.50 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chapecoense-sc attack 1.60 + Atletico Goianiense defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.55

Atletico Goianiense attack 1.15 + Chapecoense-sc defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Chapecoense-sc scores more

46%

level

25%

Atletico Goianiense scores more

29%

Chapecoense-sc at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Chapecoense-sc will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

Ronaldo

Atletico Goianiense · G

7.9

Match Events

46'

Airton← Rodrigo Soares

56'

Dodô

60'

Luiz Fernando← Dodô

60'

Rhaldney← Matheus Sales

61'

Felipe Ferreira← Marcinho

61'

Marco Antônio← Alisson Farias

61'

Gabriel Xavier← Bruno Nazário

69'

Dudu Vieira← Giovanni Pavani

70'

75'

77'

77'

80'

Matheus Peixoto← Gustavo Coutinho

82'

Richard Rodrigues← Kayke

90+6'

Matheus Peixoto↳ Lucas Esteves

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Chapecoense-scAtletico

Overview

42%Possession58%

19Total Shots10

1.62Expected Goals (xG)0.63

4Corners4

9Fouls14

Shots

19Total Shots10

4On Target3

11Off Target2

4Blocked5

9Inside Box3

10Outside Box7

Passing

42%Possession58%

343Total Passes479

256Accurate Passes386

75%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

9Fouls14

2Yellow Cards3