Chapecoense-sc 2–2 America Mineiro: Result & Stats

Chapecoense-sc

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

America Mineiro

Bruno Leonardo 77'

Mário Sérgio 36'

Alê 83'

Fabinho 79'

5/4/2024

Serie B · Round 3Arena Condá

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Chapecoense-sc47%

×Draw27%

America Mineiro27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chapecoense-scExpected goals in this matchAmerica Mineiro

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.00

Chapecoense-sc

1.42

America Mineiro

1.00

Chapecoense-sc creates 42% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 15 away

1.73

creates per match

0.87

1.14

allows per match

1.11

creates per match

Chapecoense-sc

1.73

America Mineiro

0.87

allows per match

Chapecoense-sc

1.14

America Mineiro

1.11

-0.84scores less than expected

finishing

-0.20scores less than expected

finishing

Chapecoense-sc-0.84scores less

America Mineiro-0.20scores less

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chapecoense-sc ↓

America Mineiro →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Chapecoense-sc or draw

73%

Chapecoense-sc or America Mineiro

73%

Draw or America Mineiro

53%

Winning margin

Chapecoense-sc wins by 2+

23%

America Mineiro wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Chapecoense-sc 1+ goals

76%

Chapecoense-sc 2+ goals

41%

Chapecoense-sc 3+ goals

17%

America Mineiro 1+ goals

63%

America Mineiro 2+ goals

26%

America Mineiro 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Chapecoense-sc (draw refunded)

64%

America Mineiro (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chapecoense-sc at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.14 · 9 matches

America Mineiro away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.11 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chapecoense-sc attack 1.73 + America Mineiro defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.42

America Mineiro attack 0.87 + Chapecoense-sc defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Chapecoense-sc scores more

47%

level

27%

America Mineiro scores more

27%

Chapecoense-sc at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Chapecoense-sc will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

28

Fabinho

America Mineiro · F

7.9

Match Events

33'

Marcinho

36'

Mário Sérgio↳ Foguinho

51'

Rafael Carvalheira

63'

Rômulo← Mário Sérgio

63'

Maílton← Marcinho

69'

Fabinho← Felipe Azevedo

69'

Moisés← Juninho

77'

Bruno Leonardo

78'

Adyson← Vitor Jacaré

79'

Fabinho↳ Adyson

81'

Walterson← Thomás Bedinelli

81'

Tárik← Giovanni Augusto

83'

Alê

87'

Maílton

87'

Mateus Henrique

90+3'

Marlone← Rafael Carvalheira

90'

Gustavinho← Renato Marques

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Chapecoense-scAmerica

Overview

29%Possession71%

7Total Shots10

2Corners9

13Fouls15

Shots

7Total Shots10

3On Target4

4Off Target3

0Blocked3

4Inside Box3

3Outside Box7

Passing

29%Possession71%

204Total Passes498

141Accurate Passes413

69%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

2Saves0

Discipline

13Fouls15

3Yellow Cards1

2Offsides1