Chapecoense-sc 4–0 Amazonas: Result & Stats

Chapecoense-sc

FT

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Amazonas

Italo 90'

W. Clar 57' (pen)

Rafael Carvalheira 27'

Mailton 15'

6/2/2025

Serie B · Round 10Arena Condá

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Chapecoense-sc51%

×Draw25%

Amazonas24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chapecoense-scExpected goals in this matchAmazonas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

1.03

Chapecoense-sc

1.63

Amazonas

1.03

Chapecoense-sc creates 58% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 9 away

1.60

creates per match

0.89

1.17

allows per match

1.65

creates per match

Chapecoense-sc

1.60

Amazonas

0.89

allows per match

Chapecoense-sc

1.17

Amazonas

1.65

-0.68scores less than expected

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chapecoense-sc-0.68scores less

Amazonas+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chapecoense-sc ↓

Amazonas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Chapecoense-sc or draw

76%

Chapecoense-sc or Amazonas

75%

Draw or Amazonas

49%

Winning margin

Chapecoense-sc wins by 2+

27%

Amazonas wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Chapecoense-sc 1+ goals

80%

Chapecoense-sc 2+ goals

48%

Chapecoense-sc 3+ goals

22%

Amazonas 1+ goals

64%

Amazonas 2+ goals

28%

Amazonas 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Chapecoense-sc (draw refunded)

68%

Amazonas (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chapecoense-sc at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.17 · 13 matches

Amazonas away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.65 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chapecoense-sc attack 1.60 + Amazonas defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.63

Amazonas attack 0.89 + Chapecoense-sc defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Chapecoense-sc scores more

51%

level

25%

Amazonas scores more

24%

Chapecoense-sc at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Chapecoense-sc will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3

Eduardo Doma

Chapecoense-sc · M

7.9

Match Events

15'

Mailton↳ Marcinho

27'

Rafael Carvalheira↳ Giovanni Augusto

33'

Rafael Monteiro

46'

Wellington Nascimento← Rafael Monteiro

46'

J. Torres← Cocote

54'

Rafael CarvalheiraPenalty confirmed

57'

W. ClarPenalty

58'

Rafael Tavares← D. Zabala

58'

Henrique Almeida← Luan Silva

63'

Italo← Marcinho

70'

Guilherme Xavier← Fernando Neto

71'

Jorge Jimenez← Giovanni Augusto

71'

Kaique Maciel← Mailson

78'

Marcinho← Rafael Carvalheira

78'

Dentinho← Mailton

90'

Italo↳ Marcinho

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Chapecoense-scAmazonas

Overview

44%Possession56%

18Total Shots11

9Corners1

15Fouls6

Shots

18Total Shots11

6On Target3

9Off Target5

3Blocked3

10Inside Box3

8Outside Box8

Passing

44%Possession56%

353Total Passes465

275Accurate Passes393

78%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

15Fouls6

0Yellow Cards1