Chanthaburi 2–2 Udon Thani: Result & Stats | FA Cup

Chanthaburi

Pens

2 – 2

Udon Thani

4/4/2018

FA Cup · 1st Qualifying Round

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Chanthaburi74%

×Draw14%

Udon Thani12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ChanthaburiExpected goals in this matchUdon Thani

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.08

1.20

Chanthaburi

3.08

Udon Thani

1.20

Chanthaburi creates 157% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

3.17

creates per match

1.40

1.00

allows per match

3.00

creates per match

Chanthaburi

3.17

Udon Thani

1.40

allows per match

Chanthaburi

1.00

Udon Thani

3.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chanthaburi+0.00on par

Udon Thani+0.00on par

Total goals

Over79
Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chanthaburi ↓

Udon Thani →

0–01%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1–04%

1–15%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–07%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4–05%

4–16%

4–24%

4–32%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

92%8%2.5

79%21%3.5

60%40%4.5

40%60%

Double chance

Chanthaburi or draw

88%

Chanthaburi or Udon Thani

86%

Draw or Udon Thani

26%

Winning margin

Chanthaburi wins by 2+

54%

Udon Thani wins by 2+

Team goals

Chanthaburi 1+ goals

95%

Chanthaburi 2+ goals

81%

Chanthaburi 3+ goals

58%

Udon Thani 1+ goals

70%

Udon Thani 2+ goals

34%

Udon Thani 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Chanthaburi (draw refunded)

86%

Udon Thani (draw refunded)

14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Chanthaburi at home — creates 3.17, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

Udon Thani away — creates 1.40, concedes 3.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Chanthaburi attack 3.17 + Udon Thani defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 3.08

Udon Thani attack 1.40 + Chanthaburi defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 74%?"

Chanthaburi scores more

74%

level

14%

Udon Thani scores more

12%

Chanthaburi at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Chanthaburi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff