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Chanthaburi vs Raj Pracha — FA Cup 2018

Chanthaburi
Chanthaburiadvanced
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Raj Pracha
Raj Pracha
4/9/2025FA CupFA Cup · Round of 16Chanthaburi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Chanthaburi62%
×Draw19%
Raj Pracha19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chanthaburi
2.46
Raj Pracha
1.31

Chanthaburi creates 88% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 8 away

creates per match

Chanthaburi
3.17
Raj Pracha
1.63

allows per match

Chanthaburi
1.00
Raj Pracha
1.75

finishing

Chanthaburi+0.00on par
Raj Pracha+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chanthaburi ↓

Raj Pracha →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Chanthaburi or draw
81%
Chanthaburi or Raj Pracha
81%
Draw or Raj Pracha
38%

Winning margin

Chanthaburi wins by 2+
41%
Raj Pracha wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Chanthaburi 1+ goals
91%
Chanthaburi 2+ goals
70%
Chanthaburi 3+ goals
44%
Raj Pracha 1+ goals
73%
Raj Pracha 2+ goals
38%
Raj Pracha 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Chanthaburi (draw refunded)
76%
Raj Pracha (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chanthaburi at home — creates 3.17, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

Raj Pracha away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.75 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chanthaburi attack 3.17 + Raj Pracha defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 2.46

Raj Pracha attack 1.63 + Chanthaburi defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Chanthaburi scores more
62%
level
19%
Raj Pracha scores more
19%

Chanthaburi at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Chanthaburi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Cup: Chanthaburi 2–1 Raj Pracha

Chanthaburi beat Raj Pracha 2-1 in FA Cup on April 9, 2025.

The match was played at Chanthaburi Stadium in Chanthaburi.