Chanthaburi 2–3 Phrae United: Result & Stats

Chanthaburi

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Phrae United

3/1/2026

Thai League 2 · Round 27Chanthaburi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Chanthaburi43%

×Draw26%

Phrae United31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ChanthaburiExpected goals in this matchPhrae United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.17

Chanthaburi

1.44

Phrae United

1.17

Chanthaburi creates 23% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 106 away

1.47

creates per match

1.24

1.10

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Chanthaburi

1.47

Phrae United

1.24

allows per match

Chanthaburi

1.10

Phrae United

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chanthaburi+0.00on par

Phrae United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chanthaburi ↓

Phrae United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Chanthaburi or draw

69%

Chanthaburi or Phrae United

74%

Draw or Phrae United

57%

Winning margin

Chanthaburi wins by 2+

21%

Phrae United wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Chanthaburi 1+ goals

76%

Chanthaburi 2+ goals

42%

Chanthaburi 3+ goals

18%

Phrae United 1+ goals

69%

Phrae United 2+ goals

33%

Phrae United 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Chanthaburi (draw refunded)

58%

Phrae United (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chanthaburi at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.10 · 51 matches

Phrae United away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.41 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chanthaburi attack 1.47 + Phrae United defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.44

Phrae United attack 1.24 + Chanthaburi defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Chanthaburi scores more

43%

level

26%

Phrae United scores more

31%

Chanthaburi at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Chanthaburi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff