Chanthaburi 2–3 Nong Bua Pitchaya: Result & Stats

Chanthaburi

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 3

Nong Bua Pitchaya

10/22/2023

Thai League 2 · Round 9Chanthaburi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Chanthaburi41%

×Draw26%

Nong Bua Pitchaya33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ChanthaburiExpected goals in this matchNong Bua Pitchaya

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.22

Chanthaburi

1.39

Nong Bua Pitchaya

1.22

Chanthaburi creates 14% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 83 away

1.47

creates per match

1.34

1.10

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Chanthaburi

1.47

Nong Bua Pitchaya

1.34

allows per match

Chanthaburi

1.10

Nong Bua Pitchaya

1.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chanthaburi+0.00on par

Nong Bua Pitchaya+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chanthaburi ↓

Nong Bua Pitchaya →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Chanthaburi or draw

67%

Chanthaburi or Nong Bua Pitchaya

74%

Draw or Nong Bua Pitchaya

59%

Winning margin

Chanthaburi wins by 2+

19%

Nong Bua Pitchaya wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Chanthaburi 1+ goals

75%

Chanthaburi 2+ goals

40%

Chanthaburi 3+ goals

16%

Nong Bua Pitchaya 1+ goals

70%

Nong Bua Pitchaya 2+ goals

34%

Nong Bua Pitchaya 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Chanthaburi (draw refunded)

55%

Nong Bua Pitchaya (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chanthaburi at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.10 · 51 matches

Nong Bua Pitchaya away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.30 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chanthaburi attack 1.47 + Nong Bua Pitchaya defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.39

Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 1.34 + Chanthaburi defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Chanthaburi scores more

41%

level

26%

Nong Bua Pitchaya scores more

33%

Chanthaburi at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Chanthaburi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff